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Watching the Generative AI Hype Bubble Deflate
(ash.harvard.edu)
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this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2024
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The answer is that it's all about "growth". The fetishization of shareholders has reached its logical conclusion, and now the only value companies have is in growth. Not profit, not stability, not a reliable customer base or a product people will want. The only thing that matters is if you can make your share price increase faster than the interest on a bond (which is pretty high right now).
To make share price go up like that, you have to do one of two things; show that you're bringing in new customers, or show that you can make your existing customers pay more.
For the big tech companies, there are no new customers left. The whole planet is online. Everyone who wants to use their services is using their services. So they have to find new things to sell instead.
And that's what "AI" looked like it was going to be. LLMs burst onto the scene promising to replace entire industries, entire workforces. Huge new opportunities for growth. Lacking anything else, big tech went in HARD on this, throwing untold billions at partnerships, acquisitions, and infrastructure.
And now they have to show investors that it was worth it. Which means they have to produce metrics that show people are paying for, or might pay for, AI flavoured products. That's why they're shoving it into everything they can. If they put AI in notepad then they can claim that every time you open notepad you're "engaging" with one of their AI products. If they put Recall on your PC, every Windows user becomes an AI user. Google can now claim that every search is an AI interaction because of the bad summary that no one reads. The point is to show "engagement", "interest", which they can then use to promise that down the line huge piles of money will fall out of this pinata.
The hype is all artificial. They need to hype these products so that people will pay attention to them, because they need to keep pretending that their massive investments got them in on the ground floor of a trillion dollar industry, and weren't just them setting huge piles of money on fire.
I know I'm an enthusiast, but can I just say I'm excited about NotebookLLM? I think it will be great for documenting application development. Having a shared notebook that knows the environment and configuration and architecture and standards for an application and can answer specific questions about it could be really useful.
"AI Notepad" is really underselling it. I'm trying to load up massive Markdown documents to feed into NotebookLLM to try it out. I don't know if it'll work as well as I'm hoping because it takes time to put together enough information to be worthwhile in a format the AI can easily digest. But I'm hopeful.
That's not to take away from your point: the average person probably has little use for this, and wouldn't want to put in the effort to make it worthwhile. But spending way too much time obsessing about nerd things is my calling.
Being able to summarize and answer questions about a specific corpus of text was a use case I was excited for even knowing that LLMs can't really answer general questions or logically reason.
But if Google search summaries are any indication they can't even do that. And I'm not just talking about the screenshots people post, this is my own experience with it.
Maybe if you could run the LLM in an entirely different way such that you could enter a question and then it tells you which part of the source text statistically correlates the most with the words you typed; instead of trying to generate new text. That way in a worse case scenario it just points you to a part of the source text that's irrelevant instead of giving you answers that are subtly wrong or misleading.
Even then I'm not sure the huge computational requirements make it worth it over ctrl-f or a slightly more sophisticated search algorithm.
Isn’t this what the best search engines were doing before the AI summaries?
The main problem now is the proliferation of AI “sources” that are really just keyword stuffed junk websites that take over the first page of search results. And that’s apparently a difficult or unprofitable problem for the search algorithms to solve.
That's what Google was trying to do, yeah, but IMO they weren't doing a very good job of it (really old Google search was good if you knew how to structure your queries, but then they tried to make it so you could ask plain English questions instead of having to think about what keywords you were using and that ruined it IMO). And you also weren't able to run it against your own documents.
LLMs on the other hand are so good at statistical correlation that they're able to pass the Turing test. They know what words mean in context (in as much they "know" anything) instead of just matching keywords and a short list of synonyms. So there's reason to believe that if you were able to see which parts of the source text the LLM considered to be the most similar to a query that could be pretty good.
There is also the possibility of running one locally to search your own notes and documents. But like I said I'm not sure I want to max out my GPU to do a document search.