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this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2023
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politics
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Short term, it won’t be a huge deal economically. Long term, it might help with de-dollarization but you don’t conduct trade in the reserve currency for political reasons. It’s just the default. Contracts are written in dollars, shipping companies expect payment in dollars, they buy insurance with dollars, etc. etc. You can use other currencies now and nations do but it’s far harder and usually more expensive so countries (and, as important, companies) just don’t.
I do think eventually, we’ll have a “basket of currencies” situation where no single currency defines the adjustments that have to be made if the buying or selling country has unforeseen inflation. But I think that’ll take way longer than the political changes. Political change happens all the time. Since 1450, there have been 6 reserve currencies.
So, I think the economic changes will be symbolic and small while the political changes will be more meaningful.