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this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2023
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I'm suprised Ukraine hasn't targetted Russian ships in port. It can't be to hard to get real time info on a boats location but my assumption is for as damning the Russian navys long rang attacks are, the long range Ukranian strike options are limited and destroying the black sea fleat is not the best use of their stock.
It could also play to Ukraines favor if in a negosiation Ukraine commits to allowing Russia to remove its ships safely in exchange for a relitively bloodless taking of Crimea, but that would be a while away, and would rely on a Russia thats willing to negosiate, but Ukraine can always destroy the ships on a later date.
They did destroy a sub and a major landing craft in drydock, which were pretty major targets.
That felt like more like an attack on the dry dock. The sub was there for months I believe and presumably would be less of a target than a sub during a rearming. That attack could be the first of many, but to me it still signals conservatism. We'll see.
Sevastopol was out of range for Ukrainian missiles until recently. The Ukrainian army was able to move their launchers 10-20km south only thanks to the gains made during the summer offensive. The recent attacks on Russian targets in Sevastopol/Crimea are probably precisely to draw Russian deployments from the front lines.
I dont believe this is completely true. Storm shadows are launched via air craft so the gains on the southern front have little impact of cruise missile range. You are probably right that the attacks on Crimea are done in the hope that the Russians will pull out their ships.
One reason I assume for this is that war ships are generally well protected, both by armor and their own defenses.
A flying kamikaze drone with maybe 3-5kg of explosives will not do that much damage to a steel hull unless it finds just the right spot to hit. The sea drones based on jetskies that the Ukrainians used had 150kg of explosives and an armor piercing design, IIRC.
I've hear it generalized that Russian war ships are glass cannons, but obviously that statement isn't helpful in understanding why that is. I don't know the details short of the Russians believed their best bet in a naval war with NATO was to overwhelm a war ship defenses with a high consintration of missiles and flee before being targeted, but if attacked first a Russian ship will practically detonate itself. Don't take my word for it tho.