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this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2023
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So all 50/50 splits are coin toss decisions and not devisive topics? That's a hot take. Especially with n=1000+ polls.
Polls with a 50/50 split, are a poll structural fail. It means the questions are too ambiguous, and the poll didn't control for it. A split of 40/40 with 20% "undecided"? That would be a credible divisive poll. A 50/50? No way.
From the source you cited: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23897329-cnn-ukraine-poll
Look at the "trends" section on page 3, "not sure" between 7% and 14%, those are credible numbers. Now look at pages 10&11, 0% to 1% "no opinion"? That's BS.
So there's trends, meaning that these question (or types of questions) before weren't a problem... But magically... now it's a problem? And you have no other resources to corroborate your stance (since I asked for a better one and you've failed to provide).
But now, since it's a much more divisive topic... it's ALL over the media... talked about nearly every day from both sides... You think that the 7-14% wouldn't diminish at all? Hell giving you the 14% doesn't change the equation we're looking at here... It's still a Plurality, just not a straight majority. But even at 45/55 I wouldn't call it a straight majority.
It's funny because the pg 12 shows 2-5% "Don't know" responses. and page 9 shows up to 3%. But that's not the point... Even if we take the sampling error rate AWAY from the "anti-Ukrainian aid" side of this debate and give it to the "pro-Ukranian aid" outright... It's STILL a plurality at the very least and still a slim majority at that. 49% vs 51%... Even if we double or triple or quadruple that error rate to 39%... it's STILL a large amount of Americans (certainly qualifying for "Plurality") who feel that additional monetary aid isn't warranted. But the real litmus test is reading the questions yourself. Really don't see how
"15a. Do you think Congress should or should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine in the war with Russia? " is ambiguous.
My point all along is that Plurality is a correct term here, yet was downvoted to hell... And even being absurdly generous to your argument we still see that's accurate. If you can find BETTER data then I'm all ears. But up to this point you haven't... and quite frankly your arguments were weak as we can see that even skewing the data in your favor MANY times over, it's still accurate to say that a plurality of Americans do not want to spend more money over there.
And before you start claiming I have some bias. I'm a dual citizen and hold a Polish citizenship. I'm not a stranger to Russia bullshit. But even Poland, who took in MILLIONS (doing well more than any other country) of refugees is starting to wear down and refuse aid to Ukraine.