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this post was submitted on 03 Oct 2023
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That's the basis for the theory behind the business life cycle. The theory goes that eventually companies mature and settle into a kind of coasting phase, where they maximise profit instead of continuing to innovate. This provides a large opening for competition, who inevitable eat the incumbent's lunch.
Indeed, on a long enough time scale, all companies eventually die. It's just that, living in that moment, it appears that these companies are so unbelievably large and powerful that they could never be unseated. I'm sure people thought that of the Dutch East India company at the time, yet it dissolved 224 years ago.
Eventually, Facebook will kill itself. It's already done such a great job.
I have a family member working at FB and they said by the end of this year they will have closed down allllll the fancy new office buildings they built in the last decade or so, and revert operations to just the main, original campus. So seems like they’re on the down-and-down for sure.
My current employer went from rigid 100% office attendance, a là Office Space and cubes and dress codes and Nina, to 0%, overnight, for COVID. They sold most of the space but for 2 permanent and 4 more hotel spots, they have meeting spaces and a revolving receiver assignment for packages, but the entirety of the staff is effectively remote since the state of emergency was declared. Transition was fast and furious and they survived with most of their sanity intact. They wrote remote-first into the union contract, and quietly mention it's from anywhere in the country.
Reduction in space doesn't mean reduction in staff nor mandate. We're only growing.
Just, look for other indicators.
The problem is their ability to gobble up new companies that could threaten them and use any innovative patients they may hold to either enrich themselves or stifle competition or both.
That is the premise used to argue that one day a zombie company will emerge which will live forever. In millennia, it has never happened. I'm fairly confident it's unlikely. These companies eventually allow their culture and focus to settle into complacency. Buying other companies can't solve that. In fact, it hastens their demise, as they spend large sums of money on companies they're incapable of properly utilising.
It's also that the U.S. has shown repeatedly that it'll prop up companies with ongoing subsidies, or even bail them out as in the 2008 crisis.
I have to concur with the concern. It's not a free market if we don't let bad businesses fail. What's that saying? Privatised profits and socialised losses? Less of that please.