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this post was submitted on 06 Oct 2023
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Weird to determine retirement spending based on annual income instead of annual spending. Like, if someone is only spending 40% of their income now, why would they assume they are going to increase their spending by 65% when they retire? Or otoh, if someone is spending 95-110% of their income now and that's mostly housing and food, why would they only need 68% when they retire (especially if they're accumulating debt)? I'm sure its mostly a result of that data being a lot easier to get and may be using assumptions about how many years someone is working and assumed savings rate required to get that amount of money (heuristics like if you have a constant inflation-adjusted income and save 30%, it takes about 30 years to save enough to retire)?
70th percentile is only ~$120K/year. A lot more than I make, but not exactly what I'd be using "wealthier" to describe, even if just as a comparative. Even at like 90th percentile (~220K/year) would still just be in the "well off" category in my mind.
I suggested an alternative semi-standardized metric that still wouldn't describe everyone perfectly, but I suspect would do a better job than the one used. I don't think its weird to use one. I think the one chosen is weird, even if I acknowledged one of the reasons why they probably used it (easy of data). Current spending would still be a terrible estimate for the FIRE-types who work in HCOL places and move to LCOL places for retirement, but I think it would much better account for ordinary 25th percentile income households who live paycheck to paycheck. But I doubt Vanguard really cares if their metrics are useful for poorer people who live paycheck to paycheck since its obvious they're not going to have enough anyways and not exactly their target demographic.
You're getting at my favorite article of all time, The Shockingly Simple Math of Early Retirement. Say what you will about Mr. Money Mustache or even early retirement in general, but this article really is the absolute simplest and best way to think about retirement savings. It's why I often feel poor or pressed for money but never worry about retirement, because I max it all and pay myself first, and I know as long as my percentage is high I'm on track.
Plus even before I could max my 401k and Roth (and we recently had a kiddo so had to stop Roth for a bit) or get a high savings rate, I put in way more than was comfortable because the power of compounding is worth rice and beans and not going out drinking for a bit. Now that I'm middle aged my nest egg is huge, and we've been slowly able to lifestyle inflate. But I am soooo glad my younger self saved like crazy. Time flies by, and money compounds before you know it.
People tend to spend what they earn. I have to be careful not to spend more than my paycheck every month. I know people who make less than half what I do who still do okay in life - they don't have as nice a house or as many toys, but they have food on the table and a warm roof. I know from experience that I could cut how much I spend every month by a lot - I just don't want to cut those extras from my life.
Many people are working long hours now saving for retirement when they plan to travel, and thus they think their spending will be more in the future. I know some who did that for years, and got cancer and died before their planned retirement age. I know others who have been traveling the world carefree for a couple decades after retiring.