First of all, disclaimer, I'm just a random weirdo on the internet. I don't have a law degree, I'm not a politician. I'm probably naked and masturbating while writing this.

Are we going to have a Civil War 2: Now With More F150's where it's the north vs the south? No.

Are we going to reach a point where the US sort of falls apart into separate little countries after a lot of unpleasantness? I'm not as confident in saying "No".

I think what will happen first is less "civil war" and more "societal collapse". There are very few places in the US where someone can rent an apartment by themselves, and have a decent life with nice hobbies, while only having one income. Buying a house by yourself is even farther out of reach.

But I am noticing something that is a lot closer to everyone than real estate: food is getting expensive. A hamburger at a fast food joint used to be a quick and cheap, although not healthy, way to get lunch, but now a combo meal basically anywhere is $15. For one person. So cook at home, right? Ignoring the difficulties of cooking for oneself after working both jobs, or working all day at one job, that isn't much cheaper. Making a healthy meal for yourself and your family is a skill that not everyone has, and groceries aren't cheap either. I think the first thing that is going to happen is going to be mass food theft, followed by food riots. It's already starting in fact, how many memes have popped up with variations on the saying "If you see someone stealing food, no you didn't"? Stealing food from a large company is acceptable for a lot of people. With rising COL, we will approach a point where a majority of people cannot afford food, and food isn't a house or a shiny new car. Food isn't a choice.

There will be hysterical articles in NYT about how these poor struggling retailers are losing SO MUCH money (but not really) from theft, and you'll start seeing two squad cars parked outside of every grocery store and walmart - even in "nice" areas.

And that's where things will start to escalate. Not everyone likes police now, and seeing a neighbor thrown on the ground and arrested, if not just killed, in walmart because she was trying to get food for her family isn't going to make them more popular. One or two cops cannot fend off everyone in a walmart. Oh, the cops have guns? That's adorable, so do some people in a walmart. Political feelings about police won't matter when it's your stomach growling, when it's your children going hungry.

I expect this would be the point where food would get locked up, only distributed by employees. Which would make it cost more, and more time consuming to acquire. There will be lines. There will also be people who will grow food - but not everyone can do that, and I'm cynical enough to think that some locales will pass laws against "backyard farming" in the name of "food safety", pushed by grocery stores trying to get that extra .025% profit this quarter.

What will happen once people can't get food, will be the local PD being completely unable to enforce anything.

Remember that it's bread AND circuses.