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South Africa: Putin to miss BRICS summit by ‘mutual agreement’
(www.aljazeera.com)
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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2023
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Pretty copypasta you have here. But there's a lot of obvious bullshit - I admit I didn't even bother reading it in full, but:
I'm not sure where that article got those numbers, but we can check IMF report now to see that prediction for russia is 0.7% in 2023 and 1.3% for 2024. For USA that's 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. Yet somehow that article claims, that:
First of all. This is at best sign of some recovery after -2.1% "growth" russia was experiencing last year. Compared to USA 2.1% growth last year. (notice the absence of minus sign there) So even percentage-wise this does not even place russia at the beginning of 2022. Remember that these add up. Meanwhile over these 3 years (if predictions are accurate) USA will see almost 5% increase.
Now overall that is still moot point ignoring the biggest elephant in the room that is the absolute size of the economies. The russian nominal GDP is about $2.2 trillion while USA is 10x bigger at around $25 trillion. So that 5% increase for USA means almost $1.3 trillion increase in absolute numbers. In other words USA's GDP (according to these predictions) will increase by almost half of entire russian GDP.
I'm not saying that russia is on verge of collapsing economically. Personally I'd say it will collapse politically before that. But that article is pure misinformation.
Lol lets see that political collapse source then, I provided many and you've got none for this narritive you have put forth. In fact the quelling of the Pringles revolt has galvanized the Russian political scene in favor of Putin.
You provided fairytales about russian economy overtaking USA not sources.
Publication: Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
" In Russia, the contraction this year is envisaged to be milder than initially forecast, partially due to the continued flow of energy exports"
"In the United States, growth is expected to weaken significantly through 2023 and early 2024, mainly as a result of the lagged effects of the sharp rise in policy rates over the past year"
"Growth is forecast to strengthen in 2023, to rates higher than projected in January, mainly reflecting developments in the regions’ [second] largest economy—the Russian Federation."
" Output in Russia is projected to contract less than anticipated in January mainly due to more resilient-than-expected oil production and higher- than-expected growth momentum from 2022"
"Increases in U.S. interest rates associated with inflation or reaction shocks should lead to more adverse spillovers because rising interest rates would coincide with weakening U.S. economic activity and dampened investor sentiment."
"The recent moderation in U.S. yields since the onset of U.S. banking sector stress appears to reflect negative real shocks amid heightened risk aversion and expectations of slower U.S. growth. "
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/content
Right, now if you stop cherrypicking sentences that fit your agenda and just look at the numbers, for 2022-2024, the prediction is for russia to have negative growth of -1.1% while for USA this all adds up to 4% growth.
And again, all of the previous stuff about sizes of economy applies.
Never once did I claim that the Russian economy would overtake the United states simply that the 2023 growth projections were higher for Russia than the United States. I will say you are correct regarding the size and cumulative natures of GDP growth, but add the caveat that this Russian economy growth is in spite of sanctions and removal from the SWIFT banking system.
I'll quote my original post:
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-economy-forecast-outperform-us-within-two-years-1777788
That’s higher than the IMF’s projection for the United States, which it said would see only 1 percent GDP growth that year, and down from a predicted 1.4 percent in 2023, and the 2 percent the U.S. enjoyed in 2022.
https://tradingeconomics.com
www.statista.com
I'll again ask for any support to your claim that Russia will collapse politically
https://tass.com/society/1607641
I acknowledge the bias with tass
https://www.specialeurasia.com/2023/06/24/putin-wagner-crisis-power/
The article you shared did, which I pointed out. I'm disputing your article, I'm not saying you wrote it. Not sure where you came with that idea.
Higher in what sense? Comparing percentual growth of two economies that are not even in the same league is misleading at best. Somalia has predicted growth of 3.7% in 2024. What does that say compared to russia? Nothing really. It makes as much sense comparing percentual growth of US economy to russia's. USA could drop to 0.5% growth and russia could achieve whooping 5% growth and in actual absolute numbers, the US economy would still grow faster.
By "claim" you probably mean my personal opinion which I declared as such?
I feel like you're just making up some non-existing claims and then keep disputing them. I have no time for that.
That is fine I don't have time to chase moving goalposts