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US Intelligence Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Army
(www.bloomberg.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2024
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A significant delay could be the ballgame in Taiwan for the foreseeable future.
The B-21 will be in service in 2027 and sixth generation fighters a few years later. The Chinese will need a very long time to try to come up with countermeasures for the new tech.
Given how defensive warfare is showing its strength in Ukraine, without air superiority, I doubt China could take the island right now. And I think the US and all of its allies would make life hell for the Chinese. Just submarine warfare would cut Chinese oil off like it did to the Japanese in WWII.
True, and unlike Russia China is not even remotely self-sufficient. Fuel, food, etc. all imported on a massive scale.
And unlike Ukraine, Taiwan already has a lot of protection against incoming missiles and no direct border. Having to ship everything by sea makes it so complicated, I believe the only option for china would be to nuke Taiwan. But that would have a whole lot of other repercussions...
Not the least of which being that if they nuke it, they don't get it. At least not in the way they want it.
But honestly, way theory aside, massive open warfare against Taiwan would be horrific for Taiwan, but outside of the region, it would really doom China as it exists.
Even if they did manage to take the island, likely with just an overwhelming wave of soldiers, at that point, the entire world, aside from a few exceptions (NK, Iran, Syria, Russia, Belarus, and maybe some African nations) are going to effectively strangle the Chinese economy with sanctions if not an outright embargo.
It might not change things overnight, but hitting China square in the economy is far more effective than it is for Russia, because China is so much more of a player in the world economy. They depend on the world buying their goods. As long as the rest of the world can keep unfulfilled consumer demand from triggering crippling sustained double digit inflation for years on end, there may not even be a need for large scale, near-peer open warfare.