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this post was submitted on 09 Jan 2024
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The campaign hasn't started yet. Right now, it's a one sided conversation. And the polls are all based on people who answer unknown numbers and land lines. It's a built in selection bias.
Every single election both large and small since 2020 has been heavily skewed to the left. I'm not saying don't worry, but dont despair. And work on convincing your friends. That's the single best thing you could possibly do.
I think you're selling the polls a little short. The good ones have corrected a lot of that kind of bias, though nothing is perfect. And bad polls are always bad polls.
The scary reason is that we need a campaign or conversation to get people away from Trump. The dude sucks. Any president of the past 40 years should have a higher approval rating than Trump.
Though I secretly have a theory that the Supreme Court is going to rule against Trump and kick him off. It'll give Republicans the exit that they need from him, but they can blame the courts and capture all his followers. All the candidates will run on pardoning him, and they'll keep that radical part of the party but just redirect them.