I disagree - it's definitely a win.

There's still more work to be done (you shouldn't need to first deploy an app with a million downloads on the Apple App Store in order to deploy outside of it for example...) but I expect the EU will force them to change that rule.

It will be interesting to see where they land on the Core Technology Fee. At face value it seems pretty clearly anti-competitive to make developers pay more if you don't use an Apple service. But at the same time, the government can't force Apple to give things away for free.

I expect a middle ground will be reached with much lower prices and hopefully a per-app price (e.g. pay once to have your app go through an anti-malware scanning service) rather than a per-user price. Or even better, in my opinion, is to make users pay a fee to have their device scanned for malware by Apple. A cost that could be built into the price of the hardware.