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this post was submitted on 01 Apr 2024
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A country can't default on bonds to its self. It doesn't make sense, and out of all the countries in the world the US owes Japan more money than anyone else.
No country on earth has ever gone into hyper inflation due to owing it's self, there has always been an external force draining it of money... This was not the case with Japan, and so the situation continued for three decades and is called a miracle.
So Japan is deeply in debt but theoretically stable... They're in a hole and don't appear to be sinking deeper but it's anyone's guess how they'll ever dig themselves out of the whole - with modest inflation they can keep themselves stable but high inflation will cause their government into an untenable position. Their debt (as of March 2023) was 263% of GDP - that's an insane amount of debt.
Roughly the same as Argentina but accumulated over a much larger time period.
Of course as a nominal figure I suspect American debt is larger (eg. in name or denomination value, not as a percentage of GDP).
However this will only be a problem for Argentina, as America and Japan are sovereign currencies, mostly in debt to themselves. The main risk of their position is lending downgrades, and buying power downgrades, but they probably won't matter all that much in any defacto sense.
I agree there are countries in far worse positions but the Japanese debt is rough unless MMT is assumed fully correct and Japan is considered under the cloak of US power projection. Even with those assumptions Japan is in a terrible place for issuing new debt.