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Zelenskyy straight-up said Ukraine is going to lose if Congress doesn't send more aid (www.businessinsider.com)

submitted 6 months ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

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President Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine would lose the war if the US didn't send it more aid.
House Republicans have been stalling on a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine.
"It is necessary to specifically tell Congress that if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose," he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that his country "will lose the war" against Russia if Congress does not act to send it more aid, Agence France-Presse reported.

"It is necessary to specifically tell Congress that if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war," he said, per AFP.

For months, House Republicans have stalled on a bill containing $60 billion in aid for Ukraine, stipulating that it should also include increased funding for security at the US southern border.

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[-] maynarkh@feddit.nl 5 points 6 months ago

Truth is that Russia had more time to prepare and the USSR stockpile to fall back on. They also do heavily rely on unguided shell artillery because of the Soviet heritage, as does Ukraine, which makes it the weapon of choice. So Russia can outpace the West in this one item, dumb artillery shells, for a year.

Europe and the US are ramping up production, and are scheduled to outpace Russia by the end of the year. The truth is, the West was not preparing to fight this war, it was preparing to fight a war where it has overwhelming air superiority, but air capabilities take a ton of time to build with training pilots and whatnot.

Point is, Russia has this year to push this edge as much as possible, if nothing else changes, 2025 will be heavily stacked against them. That said, shit can happen, like with the US election, but on their side as well - remember Prigozhin?

[+] wintermute_oregon@lemm.ee -6 points 6 months ago

Europe and the US are ramping up production, and are scheduled to outpace Russia by the end of the year

Where did you see that at? America won’t even get close for several years.

[-] maynarkh@feddit.nl 1 points 6 months ago

This guy has sources and seems competent and well-regarded. He also is not a click-grabbing clickbaity rah-rah Ukraine person.

TL;DW seems to be (correct me if I'm reading it wrong here):

Russia has a higher production number on their main calibre dumb artillery shells than the West since they had factories where they just had to ramp up production by extending shifts in their existing plants
The West was not prepared for this kind of war, so they don't manufacture main calibre dumb artillery shells at this rate, as their doctrine does not prescribe their use, they prefer air superiority tactics
However, both the EU and the US are ramping up main calibre shell production with each scheduled to be where Russia is at now in 18 months (if combined, they will surpass it in 12)
In the meantime the Czech have managed to get together a sizeable stop-gap shipment by buying from the open market using joint EU funds
Also, Russia has a serious problem with artillery, with the actual cannons, as their arsenal seems to be transforming from a mostly mobile self-propelled one to one dominated by towed units, with alarmingly many WWII D-10 guns, which have an effective range of 10km with very bad accuracy
Finally, even though Russia is producing a lot of shells, they are using even more, with them saying they need 4 million per year to sustain what they are doing now, but only producing 1.5 million per year, with a 3 million shell stockpile

All that says that Russia has a head start on shell production and stockpiles, but it's getting used up, while the Ukrainians need to hold on, and if both the EU and the US come through, they will be in a shell advantage by this time next year, if either the US or the EU loses political will (khm Trump), they will still be okay by end of next year-ish. On the other side, victories like Avdiivka are not sustainable for Russia either, neither manpower nor production-wise, but they can get a lot of support from China, so that may tilt stuff their way. It's still all up in the air.

[-] PipedLinkBot@feddit.rocks 1 points 6 months ago

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This guy has sources and seems competent and well-regarded. He also is not a click-grabbing clickbaity rah-rah Ukraine person.

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this post was submitted on 08 Apr 2024

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