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this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2023
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https://www.cato.org/policy-report/january/february-2017/megaprojects-over-budget-over-time-over-over#
Maybe there needs to be the introduction of new mechanisms to deal with assessing the cost of very large projects.
It's not possible. This is a function of the complexity of big projects, not some nefarious politicking. That is even if you completely remove any politicking out of the equation, large complex projects will still be grossly misestimated, likely on the lower side. Also I would discount anything coming from CATO.
What will the budget overrun be to establish that new mechanism?
Standard practice already dictates that you double the estimate, and then double it again. Aside from the Opera House, there are no real surprises in the examples given. 90% accuracy is good enough, no? Cost starts to outweigh the benefit if you want to reach for 100%.