Yeah, July 1st will be interesting. The important thing is that the various alternatives have gotten seeded with users who are contributing enough content to make them viable. That means that when the 1st hits users will have viable places to go.

Honestly, when I first got to Beehaw a couple weeks ago it was pretty sparse and 10 comments in a thread was a lot. Now 10 comments is thin and the low hundreds are becoming the norm. It's growing and snowballing.

I think this is just the leading edge unless folks are lining up to replace moderators in most communities.

Systems tend to fail slowly, and then all at once.

Most fediverse denizens have noticed how sane and measured the dialogue is, which is entirely a product of the audience who is here right now. But everyone's got a threshold, whether Reddit loses everyone or not isn't relevant if they couldn't be profitable with all of us. There's a death spiral coming, and if there's anything left Reddit will have to functionally change.

Easiest to think of Reddit as a party grinding on too long and starting to get rowdier, and the bouncers just quit.

but 10% is 60+% of actual human engagement. The rest are just bots talking to themselves and clicking ad links.