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YouTube could be testing a three-strikes policy for ad blocking
(www.androidauthority.com)
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The vast majority of people that watch youtube, are most likely not using an ad block and won't be affected by this at all. Just like the vast majority of reddit users use the official app, and the vast majority of people on twitter stayed.
It will take a lot more than this to make something else the next big thing. Just like lemmy is nowhere near as popular as reddit, mastadon is nowhere near as popular as twitter. Yes those of us technical enough or that care enough will use an ad block or similar, but we are in the minority, and always will be.
https://www.statista.com/topics/3201/ad-blocking/
Sounds like will affect 1/4 of youtube users. I highly doubt google would be doing this if it wasn't getting in the way of making more money.