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Russia to build up forces in west to counter NATO threat - Shoigu
(www.reuters.com)
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They've already been moving troops and equipment away from the Finnish borded demonstrating that despite their narrative they're not actually worried about NATO invasion. If the Wagner mutiny revealed anything it's that if Finland ever wanted to take back Karelia now would be the time and to be honest we could snatch St. Petersburg while we're at it and basically receive zero resistance. We wont though and they know it.
I would wager they'd resort to nuclear response if that happened. The last thing putin could ever accept is losing existing russian land.