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this post was submitted on 30 May 2024
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It's very likely the GOP will win control of the Senate, and if they do McConnell would sooner die than let Biden even consider nominating someone.
Still gonna vote for Biden though, because if Trump wins the Conservative justices will all retire at once and they'll nominate 30-year-olds to fill in. I don't want 60+ more years of a Conservative court majority!
McConnell has already said he would step down from Senate leadership, so some other guy would get the task of impeding everything Biden does.
However, things are looking better than they used to that Democrats will at least be able to hold the Senate to a 50/50 split, and possibly also pick off Ted Cruz in Texas. Democrats who are not fond of Biden don't seem to be taking it out on their Senate candidates. There are several states where Biden is trailing, yet the incumbant Democratic Senator still has a good lead.
Let me stop you right there, because this man has already shown his word doesn't mean anything. It shifts with the political winds.
Democrats have to win in a lot of red states this time around. I'd be over the moon if that happened, but maybe we should have a backup plan in case Democrats lose in Ohio, Montana and Texas.
Democrats already have 51 seats (counting the independants). WV is a lost cause, but if they keep the seats they currently hold (including Arizona), that's how they get to the tie at 50.
You point out Ohio and Montana where holding that seat will be hard, but signs are pointing up.
Biden not causing many stiffies will have a negative impact on the number of those actually going to the polls though
Ted Cruz losing his senate seat would unironically be celebrated by every single person there. Republicans hate that guy. They appreciate his vote, but he is absolutely despised.