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this post was submitted on 01 Jun 2024
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I would think Russia's next target will be Georgia. The invasion there is only frozen for the moment, but with the pro-Russian government there it only needs some more Russian style laws like those anti-LGBTQ or foreign-agents one, plus massive protests in the young city population and Russia will "come to help the government".
Georgia and Moldova are easy non-NATO pickings. I would be very worried if I were them.
Georgia yes but Moldova uhh definitely not, unless you're referring to Transnistria specifically, and even that is in a tenuous position.
Why not Moldova? Russia has been undermining them for years.
Yes, but Moldova is having none of it. They are firmly EU-aligned and will not go over to Russia willingly. That means they are essentially untouchable barring Russia taking all of Ukraine or launching an absurdly large-scale military operation into the black sea and through Odesa. Considering their Black Sea fleet was already crippled by a country with no navy, that seems unlikely. I also doubt Romania would look the other way.
I would assume they'd use Transnistria as a proxy. The attempted coup in 2023 is a huge indication that Russia is still very interested in Moldova and will further thier hybrid efforts after they've settled when they take Ukraine. Georgia is most likely going to be a vassal state under the Georgia Dream.
Moldova doesn't have strategic value, Georgia on the other hand is a choke point for anyone trying to invade Russia through the Caucasus. And Russia will do everything in its power to control it. It really is a matter of national security.
In modern wars, the invasion isn't actually the hard part. It's the occupation that's the hard part. And Russia is having a really difficult time trying to accomplish the easy part (the invasion).
The only way Russia can go after Georgia (or anywhere else) would be if they withdrew from Ukraine immediately. Taking territory from Ukraine means more land they have to deal with a resistance campaign. Occupying any country takes a large amount of manpower, and Ukraine is a very large country and will likely be dedicated to resist a Russian occupation for at least a decade.
By most estimates, Russia simply doesn't have the manpower to successfully occupy Ukraine. Even if Russia can take all of the territory (which I doubt) they'd bogged down for at least a decade, with the most likely outcome being a withdrawal and collapse of of the Russian Federation similar to how the Soviet campaign ended in Afghanistan.
Thank you for your words, setting this in another perspective. What bothers me most with this, somewhat -please excuse my words- cold view is the pain inflicted on all involved. I do not have any deep personal ties to both of these countries, but a huge sympathy to their inhabitants. Plus, I think any death or injury, even on the Russian side, hits mostly innocent, but probably misguided persons. And all of that because of one man's aspirations. I'd rather like my and other's governments to be more involved in this conflict, and also to show some more balls in regard of weapons usage and support. Do they all really think that person's gonna push the button when totally cornered? Because that's what he is, alone in that Kremlin of his, depending on his mafia buddies.
I would think that if shit ever seriously hit the fan for them he would suddenly find a lot less allies in his cabinet than he thought.
But that is very much an uninformed armchair opinion.