Yes the Admiral Kuznetsov is a massive piece of shit and shouldn't be counted anywhere ;-). I would happily take an alternative source if you've got one. And yes, Russia is losing more than it's making. Which means we are on a good path if we can sustain it. My only fear is that with a Trump win and far right parties winning all over Europe, we won't be able to.

I will take issue with Ukraine being woefully underequipped, though. They weren't worse off than many European nations and were far better off than the Baltic states are now. Many people are totally ignorant of the large amounts of NLAWs and ATGM's pumped to Ukraine by the west before the invasion. Without these I think it would have been a very different story. I have a link to some numbers somewhere in my history.

As for a divided Europe, it is a fantasy for now, but the trends are heading in that direction, largely due to Russian disinformation efforts. Unfortunately Putin gets a chance to fuck us up at every election while he will be there until he dies. So time is on his side in that way.