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this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2023
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Well, to answer your question, I'd say that it needs to be a coordinated national/international effort (e.g. led by the E.U for Europe). This gives the ability to enact long term, coordinated planning with predetermined cut-off dates where not only the technology of the cars would change, but also infrastructure.
To me it doesn't make sense to adapt the vehicles to work with an infrastructure designed for humans, so if we really want self driving vehicles we should adapt the infrastructure for it, and also we should have all the cars talk to each other so they can work in unison (e.g. they would all start perfectly at the same time after a "red light", which wouldn't even need to be one, and eliminate collisions since everything would be predicted by the AI, what can't be would still have to rely on cameras and sensors of course).
Meanwhile, car manufacturers could keep adding smart safety features, but nothing marketed as "autopilot" or "self-driving".
This didn't answer how a system would be fully developed without ever setting foot on a real road, with real obstacles, real weather, and real drivers.
Furthermore, if we were to follow this plan, would everyone in a participating nation receive a new car when the changeover occurs? In the US there are something like 250 million registered vehicles which would need to be replaced at the same time in order to be equipped with this new technology needed to work in unison with every other vehicle on the road. Frankly this is an unworkable solution IMO.
It would need to be a staggered thing. Even maybe level 2/3 would be needed during some of the stages. The stages will need to be long enough and/or subsidized enough to let every road user get appropriate vehicles under predefined timelines.
Obviously I won't pretend I worked out every single details, but I just don't think leaving it up to Elon&Co to figure it out while gambling with people's lives is the right way to go.
It sounds like you're from the US so I do understand why you'd think countries making companies work together towards something like this is impossible. It might be, there. It would be a colossal project tbh, but I stick by my opinion that it needs to be a transition supervised by regulatory bodies and not just the wild west with every company doing different things.
The whole system will 100% have to be unified to support full self driving.