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this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2024
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I'm not so sure. Taking Crimea, but leaving the rest of Ukraine a sovereign state broke the pattern of historical European prelude to war.
Putin, by stopping at Crimea, made this look like a localized dispute between two sovereign nations, not the conquest of the entire nation, with more to follow. Had Putin taken all of Ukraine in 2014, that would look very much like a Napoleon or Hitler seeking European domination. The world would have responded very differently I think.
He would have had no choice, not taking ukraine would have required every country to start arming, Europe would have tooled up, Sweden and Finland too, they weren't thrilled with Russia before this.
Yeah putin might have imagined he'd keep Ukraine subjugated by fear alone, but they were moving to the western sphere ever since maidan, that was unlikely.
Putin was trying to command the tides to withdraw, that's futile, it's all over already.