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this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2024
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Right now Brent Crude is just 71.28. Oil prices are going down.
Additionally Russia does not have the technical ability to fix all of the refineries that Ukraine has been blowing up nor do they have the ability to fix all of the upstream production problems being created.
Productions of raw products is dropping fastand those declines are going to both continue and accelerate.
O&G is not going to be propping up Russia's economy for much longer.
Yes, and as soon as it gets cold oil the price of oil will rise once again. It's not like countries are divesting from fossil fuels any time soon.
Russia isn't a technologically deprived nation, and they have one of the largest oil producing and refining operations in the world. They may not be able to repair the damages with imported parts as they would have 5 years ago, but refining tech isn't exactly a new science, or particularly complicated.
If you examine that chart for the year it seems bad, but if you just click on the scale of 5 years, it's pretty much just average. The important thing to look at is exports, which have been rapidly increasing.
I think that's a bit optimistic given that the West is hesitant to actually enforce the embargo, and are equally hesitant to divest from the fossil fuel sector.
We just don't have the spine to actually give an ultimatum of "you can do business with the US, or you can do business with Russia" to countries like India or China. That would be putting the interest of the nation and democracy in general, before the interest of private profit.