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Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished
(www.independent.co.uk)
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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024
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Here are the actual poll results which the article helpfully does not link to.
I think articles like this based on a single poll which appears to be an outlier are uninformative, but I guess they get clicks.
It's not that much of an outlier. Nate Silver is tracking Trump's lead in Florida across numerous polls at +3%. With leaners, this poll found +2%. Off the average by one point with a 3.5% margin of error. Which is to say, well in line with other results.
The article is sensationalistic and likely wrong in portraying that as a toss-up or close to tied. Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%. A result that suggests he has a similar lead suggests that he'll win by about as much as he did in 2020.
Silver has seven recent polls that inform the Florida average. Not a single one shows Harris ahead. Trump has also outperformed his polling in both of the last two contests, so his actual lead in Florida may be greater than the polling average suggests, but there is nothing to suggest Harris is ahead or likely to pull ahead.
Trump is likely to win Florida. The race still hinges primarily on Pennsylvania. Harris is not gaining ground. The race is locked in essentially a dead heat, with a tiny edge for Harris if you believe the polls and a tiny edge for Trump if you believe he'll again outperform the polls.
I detest these articles and the conspiratorial side of me thinks they're planted by the right to encourage complacency among Democratic voters. This election is as close as they come and requires everyone to show up and vote.
Trump won Florida by 3% where the polling suggested he was trailing by 3%, to just sharpen that point a bit.