Prompt:
Mao Zedong pregnant and glowing, wearing pastel yoga shorts and no shirt. Mao Zedong is pregnant and caressing his belly. Next to him is a cradle with the name "Xi" on it. There is a winnie the pooh poster on the wall.
Prompt:
Mao Zedong pregnant and glowing, wearing pastel yoga shorts and no shirt. Mao Zedong is pregnant and caressing his belly. Next to him is a cradle with the name "Xi" on it. There is a winnie the pooh poster on the wall.
Literally the movement of people under the banner "undecided".
Harris isn't getting shit for additional votes with endorsements from Cheney Jr or Cheney Sr. Her momentum has completely stalled and she's backslid in GA and NC. She needs at least one of those two states by a convincing margin.
The uncommitted movement are registered Democrats. Its not some fringe group, but like, the core of the core Democratic expected voters. And they came in between 10-25% of the vote in states where the movement was focusing. Lets say 20% of those voters aren't going to vote for a pro-genocide candidate?
So call it 2-5% of registered Democratic voters that Harris is leaving on the table with her position on Israel Gaza. Thats orders of magnitude more votes Harris can get by taking a more morally correct, and a more strategically correct position.
She needs to drive out voters who are torn between Harris and the couch because. No one is crossing party lines in 2024.
Being clear eyed about reality is the only way we can make a difference. Pretending things are other than they are is how and why things have gotten so out of control. It sucks Harris isn't doing better. I want her to do better. But she isn't.
We need to demand better from her on Israel/ Palestine, or we lose this election.
I dont know what any of that drivel means. You sound like an idiot.
Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%
Trump won Florida by 3% where the polling suggested he was trailing by 3%, to just sharpen that point a bit.
Is this.. tilted slightly?
Am I leaning?
I'm just not interested in anything you have to say any longer with regards to statistics. Its obvious you don't have a handle on this things and blog spamming 538 doesn't change anything about you. However, I might be interested in that cocoon of warm self delusion you've created for yourself. Might be the last time we get to have the "happy chemicals" for a very long time.
Hurricanes track:
Winning FL would flip the entire table over. She's not remotely close to winning FL right now. The polls in the article disagree wildly from all of the other polls we have on the matter. Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020. Trump won by 4 points in FL. Harris is behind in most polls by 3.
She's improved her postilion in FL. She's not remotely close to winning it. When the polls come in at +6-7 for Harris in FL, that is when she is now "break even".
A bigger issue than MOE is structural bias.
Here is FL 2020:
Dem's face a self-imposed structural disadvantage in both inter and intrastate models.
R+3 in FL should be read more accurately as R+6 or R+7 based on the best most recent structural bias measurement we have. The article is weekend whacking material.
Pretty big deal if it holds up another week or two.
Note however, that NS does not have them as being this close:
*Checking the other results in FL, this is a bit of a fever dream. Only engage with it if you haven't had some time for self-care this morning.
US hedgemony: