[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 1 points 1 hour ago

US hedgemony:

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 16 points 3 hours ago

Prompt:

Mao Zedong pregnant and glowing, wearing pastel yoga shorts and no shirt. Mao Zedong is pregnant and caressing his belly. Next to him is a cradle with the name "Xi" on it. There is a winnie the pooh poster on the wall.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 1 points 3 hours ago

Literally the movement of people under the banner "undecided".

Harris isn't getting shit for additional votes with endorsements from Cheney Jr or Cheney Sr. Her momentum has completely stalled and she's backslid in GA and NC. She needs at least one of those two states by a convincing margin.

The uncommitted movement are registered Democrats. Its not some fringe group, but like, the core of the core Democratic expected voters. And they came in between 10-25% of the vote in states where the movement was focusing. Lets say 20% of those voters aren't going to vote for a pro-genocide candidate?

So call it 2-5% of registered Democratic voters that Harris is leaving on the table with her position on Israel Gaza. Thats orders of magnitude more votes Harris can get by taking a more morally correct, and a more strategically correct position.

She needs to drive out voters who are torn between Harris and the couch because. No one is crossing party lines in 2024.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 2 points 3 hours ago

Being clear eyed about reality is the only way we can make a difference. Pretending things are other than they are is how and why things have gotten so out of control. It sucks Harris isn't doing better. I want her to do better. But she isn't.

We need to demand better from her on Israel/ Palestine, or we lose this election.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -1 points 4 hours ago

I dont know what any of that drivel means. You sound like an idiot.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 6 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%

Trump won Florida by 3% where the polling suggested he was trailing by 3%, to just sharpen that point a bit.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 46 points 4 hours ago

Is this.. tilted slightly?

Am I leaning?

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 2 points 7 hours ago

I'm just not interested in anything you have to say any longer with regards to statistics. Its obvious you don't have a handle on this things and blog spamming 538 doesn't change anything about you. However, I might be interested in that cocoon of warm self delusion you've created for yourself. Might be the last time we get to have the "happy chemicals" for a very long time.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 11 points 8 hours ago

Hurricanes track:

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 11 points 8 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago)

Winning FL would flip the entire table over. She's not remotely close to winning FL right now. The polls in the article disagree wildly from all of the other polls we have on the matter. Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020. Trump won by 4 points in FL. Harris is behind in most polls by 3.

She's improved her postilion in FL. She's not remotely close to winning it. When the polls come in at +6-7 for Harris in FL, that is when she is now "break even".

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 17 points 9 hours ago

A bigger issue than MOE is structural bias.

Here is FL 2020:

Dem's face a self-imposed structural disadvantage in both inter and intrastate models.

R+3 in FL should be read more accurately as R+6 or R+7 based on the best most recent structural bias measurement we have. The article is weekend whacking material.

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 38 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)

Pretty big deal if it holds up another week or two.

Note however, that NS does not have them as being this close:

*Checking the other results in FL, this is a bit of a fever dream. Only engage with it if you haven't had some time for self-care this morning.

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On Monday, flights at Beirut’s airport were canceled as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to carry out a “harsh” military attack on Lebanon, following Saturday’s deadly strike on a Syrian Druze community in the Israeli-occupied Golan town of Majdal Shams. The horrifying incident killed 12 children on a soccer field.

Israel and the U.S. immediately accused Hezbollah of hitting the town with a Falaq-1 rocket launched from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has denied it was behind the attack and both it and the Lebanese government have called on the United Nations to undertake an independent investigation.

The way that blame for this incident unfolded publicly lends itself to competing theories of responsibility. Earlier Saturday, Hezbollah had announced it had launched a series of attacks on nearby Israeli military installations in retaliation for the killing of four Hezbollah fighters in an Israeli air strike in southern Lebanon. When news of the deaths at the soccer field began to emerge, Hezbollah swiftly issued a statement saying that it had “no connection to the [Majdal Shams] incident at all, and categorically denies all false allegations.” Hezbollah charged that an Israeli Iron Dome interceptor missile had missed its target and hit the town. Israel has claimed it identified the Hezbollah commander of the strike.

[continue...]

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421
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Key figure:

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submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

The federally appointed monitor tasked with overseeing the United Auto Workers, Neil Barofsky, is ratcheting up his conflict with UAW President Shawn Fain, announcing another investigation into the union leader who rose to national prominence amid the successful “Stand Up Strike” against the Big Three automakers.

Yet newly unveiled documents suggest Barofsky’s pursuit of Fain has less to do with concerns over union self-dealing and more to do with the politics of Israel-Palestine.

Barofsky was appointed in 2021 as the result of the Department of Justice-led consent decree put in place in lieu of prosecution of the union itself for rampant corruption, following prison sentences for two consecutive UAW presidents.

8

Some major Democratic donors have told the largest pro-Biden super PAC, Future Forward, that pledges worth roughly $90 million are now on hold if President Biden remains atop the ticket, according to two people who have been briefed on the conversations.

The frozen contributions include multiple eight-figure commitments, according to the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation. The decision to withhold such enormous sums of money is one of the most concrete examples of the fallout from Mr. Biden’s poor debate performance at the end of June.

Future Forward declined to comment on any conversations with donors or the amounts of any pledged money being withheld. A Future Forward adviser would say only that the group expected contributors who had paused donations to return once the current uncertainty about the ticket was resolved.

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Key quotes:

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) met with President Biden Thursday night to relay the sentiments of the House Democratic Caucus regarding his reelection bid, as concerns grow within the ranks about the incumbent’s ability to beat former President Trump in November.

The meeting — revealed in a letter to colleagues Friday morning — came after Jeffries spoke with a large swath of House Democrats in the two weeks since last month’s debate, which prompted concerns about Biden’s viability at the top of the presidential ticket. . The meeting took place after Biden’s high-stakes press conference that evening, a source familiar told The Hill.

Jeffries said he passed along the “full breadth” of thoughts he heard within his caucus.

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submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

Not sure if this violates rules, but this is breaking news and the primary source. Local news video.

17th house Democrat calls for Biden to step down. Post NATO-news conference, 6:30 Pacific Time

-41

Key quote:

Even from behind bars, Steve Bannon’s message is clear: Republicans want Joe Biden to stay in the presidential race. Why? Because they know it will be better for Donald Trump.

In an email interview with Matthew Boyle from far-right Breitbart News, the former Trump adviser was asked what he made of the Democrats sticking with Biden amid widespread criticism of the president’s performance in last month’s debate and the calls for him to drop out of the presidential race.

“So we got the candidate we want … and the country is stuck with a nonperforming cadaver,” Bannon replied.

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submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

Key quotes:

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is working furiously behind the scenes to put pressure on President Biden to reconsider his place at the top of the 2024 ticket, according to a number of Democratic lawmakers familiar with her efforts.

The Speaker emerita is talking to a broad swath of House Democrats — from front-liners in tough districts to hardened veterans with institutional clout — to pump the brakes on the notion that Biden should definitively be the party’s nominee heading into November, these lawmakers said.

Pelosi has not said Biden should exit the race, but the lawmakers said she harbors deep concerns about Biden’s ability to defeat former President Trump, and she’s fighting to prevent the party from rubber-stamping Biden’s candidacy before there’s a broader discussion about the potentially damaging consequences of that decision.

Note: This is a "breaking" story, as in, its been leaked and is just now showing up on multiple outlets.

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TropicalDingdong

joined 1 year ago