Polls averages don't capture turnout all that well. They kind of have to make assumptions about it to weight things. If they're off about it, election results csn end up being rather different

But what we can look at is voter enthusiasm polling which is down for trump. In 2020, polling suggested there was a voter enthusiasm gap favoring trump. Today it's flipped

The race is still far far closer than it should be but these things don't necessarily have zero effect either