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What's your prediction for the 2024 US election?
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Well that's disheartening. Can't believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
You could keep adding to that.
People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
Betting markets don't really have any predictive value. It's all vibes.
I wouldn't rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people's beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth..
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there's a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
This page has some background, but historically they've always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they've been around.