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Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations (projects.fivethirtyeight.com)

submitted 16 hours ago by credo@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.

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[-] Lauchs@lemmy.world -5 points 16 hours ago

Yeah, it's kind of amazing.

If there's a good poll for Kamala, it's upvotes to the moon. If it's a good one from trump, voted to the underworld.

That sort of hive mind, shut out anything I dislike attitude is the same attitude that makes half the country ignore any and all criticism of trump.

[-] reddig33@lemmy.world 3 points 13 hours ago

I think you’ll find the same number of people saying that polls are meaningless and to just vote in any of these “poll says” threads.

[-] Lauchs@lemmy.world -3 points 12 hours ago

Absolutely but polls one way get huge upvotes and polls the other get huge downvotes.

this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2024

-34 points (28.2% liked)

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