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this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2024
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I'm just waiting for the EOL of window 10 to see which of the following will happen:
I'll save you the wait. It's 1 with quite a bit of 6.
Normal people just don't need PCs that much any more. Nearly everything that people did on a PC you can do on a phone.
If you can't do it on a phone, then it's usually called work, and employers can replace things as needed. Although we've still got customers using variants of Windows XP, so don't hold your breath. Some employers just aren't beholden to higher ups that demand security audits.
All those numbers will happen at the same time, at different proportions.
6 is becoming increasingly more common. Anecdotally, almost all of the gamers I know use consoles and have a phone for all of their "computer needs." One of my friends probably wouldn't even use his if it weren't for VR Chat.
I'm a computer gamer but my kids like Xbox....they're switching to Linux steam big picture mode.
240 millions PC will become e-waste if Win10 reaches EoL
EoL doesn't mean it will stop completely; people will probably keep using it till they can't anymore, like pc becoming too slow or their home banking site not working.
Realistically it will live for as long as Google Chrome still works and sites don't start getting picky about TLS 1.3.
I've got an Asus eeePC running WinXP. It's air-gapped and the wi-fi is disabled in BIOS. All it does is play music, connected to dumb speakers. I update the music periodically via USB. Remarkably reliable and long-lived hardware.
Sounds like homelabber paradise is headed for eBay
My bet is that they are gonna surrender and will remove restriccions to W11. I doubt that a non-it person gonna install Linux, at least that, some companies decided to resell old~ computers with linux preinstalled that's the only way
My money is on MS kicking the can down the road and adding another year or two to the support last minute, then not fixing any of the issues with 11.
The paid extended security update program is going to run until 2028, and Windows 10 IoT Enterprise 2021 LTSC is going to have extended support all the way until 2032.
They have stated that ESU is going to be available to consumers as well, though not for how much - but somewhere between the $61 of the commercial, and $1 (really) of the education license, with the price doubling every year.
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 Or won't take long before it gets too expensive at that rate
1, 2, 4. Then it's 2028 and ESU ends. No idea how the pricing for the IoT long term support thing is done though.
Or Win10 IoT LTSC till 2032
I don't see the os switch happening unless microsoft stops existing in its entirety.
Abandoning home PCs could be a thing I guess, but i feel like that would happen either way for these people
I doubt the os switch is happening too, some will probably switch but that will be a small amount, either they get Linux or afaik all other "popular" options require new hardware anyways (Macos)
I think many will just stay on windows 10 if their hardware doesn't support 11 but ehh
Difficult to say, that's why I'm waiting on the EOL for headlines like "millions of pcs vulnerable due to missing updates" or "maybe we were a little hard on crowdstrike"
This is one of those things where home users just default to PC = Windows. But apps are all online now. Probably 99% of the time all people need is a browser. Yeah some people think they have to have MS Office or some other niche windows program, but I consider myself a power-user and the only apps I open on my PC are Games, Discord, IntelliJ, VSCode, and then maybe fool around with local AI stuff. Photos and stuff are usually on our phones, but they can also all be backed up to the cloud from a computer easily enough.
I've already switched over to Linux because all of that stuff already works. (Caveat: I also have a PS5 for most gaming).
Most people just need someone to install Linux Mint or whatever and they wouldn't even notice the difference. The only thing really slowing Linux adoption is folks who don't want to field support calls from their friends and family.
Linux has been gaining market share, it's at 4.5% or so, it's not much but just until recently it never even hit 3%
Maybe Valve has something to do with it but who knows... I think we will see a bigger jump and it will start being as common as os x or something... I plan to switch and have been trying out different things