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this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2024
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Im curious what US Tesla sales are gonna look like next year
You think some of the right-wingers who decry climate change will adopt EVs via Tesla since Elon sucks up to their guy now?
Yah they might drop $50-60k on cars they don't want just to own the libs
Tesla is expected to sell like crazy because they are one of the only EV carmakers to not be hit full force by tariffs. However, given the public reception of Musk, the car brand may see a long term decline as fewer vehicles are purchased in the US and EU for different reasons. Chinese EVs will sink EU and APAC sales and people don't want to give Elon any of their money if they can help it.
Tesla also doesn't create any new vehicle models or redesign of their initial line up that was created 12 years ago. He's coasting on the demand and has no plans for doing anything different. I would expect Tesla to hit hard times after a decade or so.
TL;DR - a small bump in sales followed by a steady fall off before Trump Part Deux is done.
Very few people have had their car purchasing decisions influenced by Musk, that's evidenced by Tesla being the top 3 best selling EVs in the U.S. in Q2. Their sales will decrease as competition increases. You could make the argument the lack of competition is what maintains their sales.
This is why they're leaning hard on FSD, it's the only thing that could realistically make them stand out once the EV market matures. We'll have to wait to see if V13 delivers (was supposed to release in October...) in order to gauge their future as a company.