I feel like FromSoft's games have a nice solution to this in that generally speaking, the world has basically already ended and you're fighting through the wreckage to try to pick it up again. Not a viable option for every story, though, of course

I would quite like to see a game in which the events play out both without a completely fixed schedule and without being within the player's control. If we take Skyrim as an example, since everyone already knows how that one works, imagine if:

• Civil war battles happen whether you are there or not. You get some notice about them or can maybe even ride in at the last moment to turn the tide, but they're happening with or without you.
• Your sidequests to win over jarls and find powerful artifacts stack the odds in your chosen side's favour. Intercepting the messenger on that one mission allows you to avert an otherwise guaranteed loss for your side.
• Alduin is also doing stuff on his own schedule. If you leave him unchecked, one of your allied jarls might have their army decimated trying to hold off a dragon attack without you.
• If you leave Alduin unchallenged long enough, jarls start defecting to the Dragon Cult and directing dragons with armies as backup towards your side, knowing that you are fighting for them and are the biggest threat on the board.
• Leaving your civil war side unsupported means that Balgruuf won't agree to help trap Odahving. You then have to track down info about the portal to Sovngarde in an ancient scroll and take the long and arduous journey up the mountainside yourself on foot, leaving your civil war side without you for days on end

You'd need to make sure that the player has control over when these events start, but it already does gate dragons behind that first quest to defend Whiterun. You want to just mess about in caves for the first twenty hours, sure, go ahead.

Obviously Skyrim was never going to do this because it isn't trying to be that kind of game. It wanted to be a do anything go anywhere power fantasy, and that's fine. But I would like more games to do this sort of thing. I think some of Paradox's strategy games actually do quite a good job of creating this feeling, but the gameplay is completely different (and it only works until you get good enough to just break the mechanics in half for most of them)

Depends. If they're already in a position of power, they basically win if nobody rises against them.

What often happens is they did try to stop the hero through the game, and failed.

It's not an RPG, but I think Owlboy handled it expertly.

Each level, Owlboy is out to handle some dangerous issue that is happening. By the end of the level, he succeeds.

The thing is, in the background, other things are happening. Almost every time you "succeed" the story moves forward to tell you, "oh, while you were doing that, THIS was happening that made all you just did basically pointless and we're all even more screwed than before you started this level."

So, it keenly points out the enemies aren't waiting around, in fact, they're doing dastardly things while you're busy trying to save the day, so much so that your character continues to feel like a failure despite many successes. I think it's a great way to present and write a story, to show that your character isn't the only one in the wider world that things are happening to and can't handle all problems at once. Things happen outside of their control and outside of their vision, just like in our real lives.

It's