CBC poll aggregator puts the probabilities of next year's federal election outcomes at Conservative majority--94%, Conservative minority--4%, Liberal government--1%.
I didn't realize things were this bleak.
I feel some deja vu watching Trudeau refuse to step aside (early enough), just like with Biden.
A friend of mine thinks no one really wants to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader, for what's most likely to be a decisive loss.
I posted an article with a headline about Trudeau's GST holiday and $200 checks signalling that he's out of ideas or that it 'smacks of desperation'. Lemmy.ca didn't seem to like it much. But I look at the gesture like, "that's the best you can do for a fighting chance at forming a government?"
I don't like their disinclination to truly represent the working classes, and the general loss of that representation in politics more widely at the moment (eg, shift towards conservativism and authoritinarianism).
Are we just defeatedly marching towards 4 years of a PP government? Realistically, can/will anything be done, even for a greater chance at a Conservative minority, never mind an ABC government?
I don't think it's analogous. The CBC poll aggregate is even more optimistic than 338 and 338 has said libs are sub 1% for a long time, since the start of the year:
https://338canada.com/federal.htm
Biden was never in the pit that badly.
If an election was held tomorrow and the NDP weren't competitive in my riding, I wouldn't bother voting.