this post was submitted on 07 Dec 2024
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It's a bit of a problem that there's no serious contender to NixOS. Especially Guix is in a good position to become an alternative.
But it will never happen, because of GNU. And before I continue, I want to make clear that this is not to shit on them.
But realistically, only a fork could make it relevant. NixOS, despite its issues (documentation, flakes, whatever), has a massive mindshare: it's a huge repository with very up-to-date packages, a lot of modules, and devshells are just a very handy thing for developers. You often find flakes in random GitHub repositories for that reason. There are sponsored efforts around the distribution (like lanzaboote). There are (semi-)commercial entities set up around it (numtide, determinate systems, tweag...)
The difference between NixOS and Guix is probably so large that no commercial provider would want to put in the required work to bring Guix up to speed, and GNU is committed to other values. As such, I think only a very big volunteer effort could make a difference.