Prototyping and design documentation was likely started a decade ago, but they wouldn't have fully ramped up to a larger team size that's more expensive to sustain for a full decade. In the interim, they put out Anthem, Mass Effect: Andromeda, and remastered the original Mass Effect trilogy. So there is a world where they didn't spend $200M on it, but it also wouldn't surprise me if they hit that number either; and if they did, they'd have to sell about 5M copies to break even (assuming a 70% cut and that not every copy sold is at $70).