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Would depend on how you were murdered.
In the street with many cameras and witnesses, pretty high chance.
In your home with no cameras and no forced entry, very low.
lets say, hypothetically some rando walks up and caps you, exactly like Luigi did the CEO. it took, probably, millions, or hundreds of thousands of dollars in terms of cop-hours, and a lot of that is straight up overtime. then there's things like draining the pond in central park, or whatever. the divers. the chasing down faulty leads.
and none of that was actually useful.
what got him in the end was the media campaign pushing his face (well. supposedly his face. there's holes in that story.) in front of everyone. And the only reason it had massive media campaign was because Luigi whacked some asshole who was a real prick, even by Health Care CEO standards, and that made it news.
they're actually more likely to figure out the other, because there's going to be a handful of people who have access to your place. Whoever has keys becomes suspect. Or whoever was in the place. at the very least, no forced entry means you knew the person, at least enough to open the door for them. (Pizza guy?) that's more than they had on Luigi until the McDonalds lady called it in.
(Seriously. Unless they have a continuous footage of him, spliced together from one camera to the next, never leaving it, then they matched Luigi's face to a pair of eyebrows on grainy video. Sure they might have DNA or something more now, but those photos were a joke. as they say. "he fit a description". a blurry, pixelated description.)
If he hadn't taken the mask off in the hostel they would still be looking.
No, they wouldn’t.
They would have found somebody else who “fit a description.”
To my knowledge there was no real reason to believe the guy in the second two photos were the shooter.
They didn’t have a solid “he goes here, here and here” timeline on him (or they would have known he went to the bus port much sooner.)
Mayve he wanted to get caught so they wouldn't blame a scapegoat?
Or maybe he is the scapegoat.
🤷♂️
(If Luigi is the perpetrator, maybe he wanted to get caught so his manifesto gets in the news?)
Could even be a copycat using the opportunity to get their manifesto in the news