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Axe The Facts
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this post was submitted on 31 Dec 2024
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PSPP (Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon) is the current leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ), the pro-independence party founded by René Lévesque, and that lead the push for the last two sovereignty referendums. He is quite popular and is probably going to be elected next Premier of Quebec.
If Pierre Poilievre pushes too hard right, the old social-democratic arguments for independence will start holding water again for quebeckers. The next election is in 2026. It should take another year for a PQ government to seize the opportunity and push another referendum, and we might be a new country by 2027.
What are the old social-democratic arguments, exactly? As an anglo, it seems funny to me to have a nationalist movement that's not also traditionalist.
I appreciate the explanation, thank you! That's an interesting outcome to think about. As an Ontarian/Canadian, I selfishly hope Québec doesn't leave because Canada would be much more CPC-heavy without Québec
My pet theory is that the threat of Quebec sovereignty is a moderating force in Canadian politics.
My favorite outcome for 2025 is a Conservative minority with a strong Bloc (or NDP, but that's less likely) as the official opposition.
Really? NDP opposition is more in line with the polls right now.
Maybe I'm wrong. I think I saw a poll to that effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election
PQ and NDP are both pretty level for the past few years, which leaves the NDP in a better position now that the Liberals are imploding. Maybe you saw a Quebec poll?
Bloc as official opposition would be pretty wild, but it sure is in the realm of possibilities.
I have a pet theory that Quebec plays a larger than recognized role in determining the balance of power federally between Conservatives and Liberals, because Quebec will elect some number of Liberals but practically no Conservatives (against AB, SK and the Maritimes which lean Conservative).
At the risk of sounding like the densest person you've encountered today, what's your pet theory? That Quebec voters hold LPC's feet to the fire with the threat that they'll leave the Liberals and doom the Liberals as a result?
It happened in 1993, believe it or not!
I don't know, haven't lived in QC long enough. But a thing that seems to be recurring is that quebeckers are good at not being taken for granted. Not even the Bloc can always count on winning (remember the orange wave?) so the federal parties always have to pander to us, in ways that they don't need to eg for Albertans who will dumbly votre blue no matter who.
Man, I wish Alberta was more like that. Zombie brand loyalty is frustrating.
On the other hand, it lets me pretend we don't have FPTP, I guess. There's less pandering to strategic demographics when there are none.