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this post was submitted on 31 Aug 2023
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How "well" are we talking? A few months, sure, but further back it's pretty easy as an autocrat to just not tell people what you're planning, and the West appears to have fundamentally misread Putin's motives to start with.
Probably months in advance, but before that it was difficult to predict when it was gonna happen. Russia warring into the west has been predicted by NATO military for a good while (a few years at least), they have also been preparing since then.