Thanks to the efforts of dedicated organisations, scientists, engaged private-sector partners and thousands of committed local people, there is an abundance of biodiversity success stories springing up in the UK. While beavers and eagles may hog the headlines, there is so much more out there, from striking butterflies to diminutive plants, reimagined rivers to revived mountain slopes.

Conservation is a complex business, but new methods are emerging to preserve, improve and generate new habitat and, in many cases, attract back or reintroduce species not seen for decades. After a nudge, ecosystems are often doing much of the heavy work themselves. Inspiring examples can be the root of a wholesale fightback. It’s time to fight inertia and look towards a brighter future for UK biodiversity, with a selection of site visits worth putting on your calendar for the coming year.

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17552794

"Our findings indicate that the spatial risk of TC-induced damage to OSW turbines along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions is broadly expected to increase, with strong intermodel agreement on the sign of change (i.e., increase or decrease) in all regions assessed. Detailed regional estimates and their associated uncertainties are outlined in Table 1. Significant increases in yielding risk are expected for the Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula resulting from 20- and 50-year storms (Fig. 1), with the average risk of turbine yielding estimated to increase by nearly 40% for a 20-year storm (Fig. 1c) and 27% for a 50-year storm (Fig. 1f). The Atlantic Coast exhibits similar changes, with projected increases in turbine yielding risk of about 35% for 20-year TCs and 31% for 50-year TCs.

Buckling, being a more acute damage state than yielding, requires higher wind speeds to surpass the structural limit. Historically, the probability that 20- or 50-year storms would induce turbine buckling has been below 10% across all regions assessed. However, under future climate change, this probability is estimated to rise to as high as 57% (Table 1), with the strongest increases and future risk expected for the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions (Fig. 2). For the Gulf Coast and Florida, buckling risk from a 20-year storm is projected to increase from nearly 0% to almost 18% (Fig. 2c). This increase is far more severe when considering a 50-year storm, with the buckling risk in this region expected to grow by almost a factor of eight. Along the Atlantic Coast, the likelihood of TC-induced turbine buckling is projected to rise as well, with anticipated increases in risk of about 9% for a 20-year TC and 34% for a 50-year TC. For both turbine yielding and buckling, the likelihood of damage is markedly higher for the Southeast than the Northeast, differing by almost 12% historically and by over 24% in a simulated future climate (Table 1)."

It’s not yet game over for the AMOC. As we discussed in part one of this post, the actual observations of 3D AMOC flow through the North Atlantic are still too brief to separate natural variations from long-term trends. And a modest decrease observed over the last 40 years has just been revised in an even more modest direction.

More papers on AMOC evolution, including follow-up studies by several of the authors above, are already in the pipeline. And more forecasts of AMOC-collapse timing are surely on the way. Some 100 presentations and posters related to AMOC were featured in December at the American Geophysical Union’s 2024 annual meeting in Washington, D.C.

There are myriad ways to adapt to climate change that’s already unfolding or imminent, many of them spotlighted here at Yale Climate Connections, such as moving to higher ground and making communities more heat-resilient. It’s far less clear how one might prepare at this point for a possible AMOC collapse, given the huge uncertainties in both the timing and details of potential impacts.

Perhaps the best way to channel AMOC anxiety would be to work toward emission reductions that could help prevent or at least forestall an AMOC collapse in the first place. That can include everything from demanding climate action on the local, state, and federal levels to talking climate with neighbors and colleagues, as well as inspiring others by example through a lower-emissions lifestyle.

Archived version

What was supposed to be the final round of United Nations negotiations for a global plastics treaty ended without an agreement on Sunday, as delegates failed to reconcile opposing views on whether to impose a cap on plastic production.

Another negotiating session — dubbed INC-5.2 after this week’s INC-5 — will be held in 2025, but it’s unclear how countries will make further progress without a change in the treaty’s consensus-based decision-making process. As it stands, any delegation can essentially veto a proposal they don’t like, even if they’re opposed by most of the rest of the world.

“If it wasn’t for Saudi and Russia we would have reached an agreement here,” one European negotiator told the Financial Times. Those two countries, along with other oil producers like Iran and Kuwait, want the plastics treaty to leave production untouched and focus only on downstream measures: boosting the plastics recycling rate, for example, and cleaning up existing plastic pollution.

[...]

Dozens of countries — supported by scientists and environmental groups — say that approach is futile while the plastics industry plans to dramatically increase plastic production. “You can talk about waste management all you want, but this is not the silver bullet,” one of the European Union’s delegates said last week. “Mopping the floor when the tap is open is useless.”

[...]

Technically, the treaty could move forward without Saudi Arabia, Russia, and their allies, either continuing under the U.N. framework or — a more radical scenario — in a new forum led by a breakaway alliance of countries. The latter is unlikely given the time and energy countries have invested in the U.N. system, and because they still value the baseline mandate they agreed to two years ago: to “end plastic pollution” by addressing the “full life cycle of plastics.” But a smaller group of signatories could still make a global impact by using import tariffs and other trade policies to indirectly influence plastic production in non-signatory nations.

[...]

The report (download as pdf), led by the University of Bristol, is the first to examine global statistics on this form of protest and identify alarming trends. It reveals that more than 2,000 climate and environmental protesters have been killed over the past 12 years and that a raft of new anti-protest legislation has been enacted.

It calls for governments, police forces and the legal system to help protect people’s right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression.

Lead author Dr Oscar Berglund, Senior Lecturer in International Public and Social Policy at the University’s School for Policy Studies, said: “This research sheds important light on how the growing pursuit of climate and environmental protest is being handled globally. Our evidence clearly shows a global crackdown in liberal democracies as well as autocracies.

[...]

The findings showed murders and disappearances of climate and environmental activists are common in many countries, with international non-governmental organisation (NGO) Global Witness reporting at least 2,106 killings between 2012 and 2023. Brazil had the highest number with 401 fatalities, followed by 298 in the Philippines, 86 in India, and 58 in Peru.

A significant proportion of climate and environmental protests involved arrests, according to the research. The highest proportion, one in five, was found in Australia, followed by 17% in the UK – much higher than the international average of 6.3%.

Non-violent protesters were also found to be given lengthy prison sentences to act as a deterrent. For example, this year in the UK many climate activists have been sent to prison, with the longest sentence being five years.

[...]

Proposals for a new law which could see the bosses of major polluters jailed for up to 20 years has received enough support from MSPs to be introduced at Holyrood next year.

Monica Lennon's proposed Ecocide Prevention Bill has the backing of enough cross-party members to be brought forward and the Scottish government has indicated that it will not intervene to stop it.

This would clear the way for the bill to be formally introduced in the Scottish Parliament next year.

Scotland would be the first part of the UK to have such a law which could impose harsh penalties on executives responsible for major environmental damage.

Ecocide ​refers to mass damage and destruction of ecosystems – severe harm to nature which is widespread or long-term. Examples could include oil spills, mass deforestation, air or ocean pollution, mining damage and emissions.

Campaigners believe the crime should come under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, which can currently prosecute just four crimes: genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and crimes of aggression.

...

An environmental lawyer has told UN News how children and teenagers from some of the most vulnerable neighbourhoods of Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina, have been moved to tears after encountering nature for the first time.

Ana Di Pangracio works for the civil society organization Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales or FARN which is involved in projects to restore degraded land in Argentina.

She and her team works in the Matanza Riachuelo basin which is a polluted area on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, which is home to around 4.5 million people, many of whom are living in socio-environmental vulnerable situations or other difficult circumstances.

Restoration activities include planting native flora and removing non-native invasive species across some 4.5 hectares, as well as building viewpoints and interpretative trails and cleaning up illegal garbage disposal.

Part of our work is bringing people, especially young people, to experience this restored natural wetland.

Many live close by in very urban, built-up areas and may come from challenging or violent environments but have never seen this land or had not even known of its existence.

[...]

"Some are moved to tears when they experience nature for the first time in their lives."

[...]

"There is a lot of land loss in Argentina, including areas which have become degraded by drought. In 2020, we experienced a three-year-long drought, the worst in over 60 years. This had serious social and environmental impacts."

Forty years ago, a deadly gas leak from a pesticide plant in the city of Bhopal in India killed at least 22,000 people. Since then, Bhopal has been a ‘sacrifice zone’ for the US-based chemical company Union Carbide Corporation (UCC), and its later owner the Dow Chemical Company (Dow), as well as the US and Indian authorities, in which half a million people across multiple generations continue to suffer.

Dow, one of the world’s largest chemical companies, in 2001 purchased UCC, the US-based company that had majority-owned the Bhopal plant at the time of the 1984 disaster. Dow took full control of UCC’s assets and benefits, and thereby, it should have also absorbed its liabilities. Instead, Dow has constantly distanced itself from any responsibility towards survivors.

Moreover, lobbying and pressure from the US government has ensured that American nationals and companies responsible for the disaster have escaped criminal justice.

More than 500,000 were injured or have suffered permanent harms, including through the inter-generational impact of MIC exposure on reproductive health, and through water sources contaminated by chemicals left on the site.

As global temperatures rise, extreme weather events are becoming more intense and more frequent all around the world.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4928706

Archived link

While developed countries have used the majority of this budget, the analysis shows that China’s historical emissions reached 312GtCO2 in 2023, overtaking the EU’s 303GtCO2.

China is still far behind the 532GtCO2 emitted by the US, however, according to the analysis.

The findings by Carbonbrief come amid fraught negotiations at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where negotiators have been invoking the “principle of historical responsibility” in their discussions over who should pay money towards a new goal for climate finance – and how much.

[...]

Historical CO2 emissions matter for climate change, because there is a finite “carbon budget” that can be released into the atmosphere before a given level of global warming is breached.

For example, in order to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, only around 2,800GtCO2 can be added to the atmosphere, counting all emissions since the pre-industrial period. (This is according to a 2023 study updating figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.)

Cumulative emissions since 1850 will reach 2,607CO2 by the end of 2024, according to Carbon Brief’s new analysis, meaning that some 94% of the 1.5C budget will have been used up.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4898387

While international donors and foreign investors were wary of investing in Tajikistan, Chinese companies have been willing to navigate Tajikistan's complicated political web.

An exiled Tajik opposition member who spoke to Global Voices on conditions of anonymity said that in order to do business in Tajikistan, anyone, be it a foreign or local company or businessman, needs to have some sort of “roof,” i.e. patronage from local or state officials in order to secure business. And this kind of protection is often remunerated by payments or bribes.

[...]

Beginning in 2012, Tajikistan leased around 18,000 hectares of its land to China for cotton, rice, grain, and corn cultivation for a 49-year contract. The agreement was part of a broader initiative to strengthen economic ties between the two countries.

The main problem with this agreement is that its terms and conditions have not been disclosed. It is not clear what — if any — systems have been implemented regarding inspecting and regulating the lands leased by Chinese farmers.

[...]

A regional expert [...] said that “China has a lot of expertise in turning land affected by erosion into a working land, through the ‘terracing method,’ which slows down soil erosion.” [...] However, a regional expert [...] pointed out that “the nature of agriculture in Tajikistan is based on irrigation and water brings weeds which have to be dealt with by using pesticides. Pesticides enter the soil and ultimately end up in water basins, most likely in the Amudarya River,” which flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan.

[...]

The Belt and Road Initiative

China is keen to help Chinese companies develop their work abroad within the framework of “The Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), it's massive international development plan.

[...]

On the other hand, independent Tajik farmers have been left at a big disadvantage compared to well-financed Chinese agricultural companies. They have little to no support from the Tajik state. It is also difficult for them to get bank loans to buy modern equipment since they are exclusively offered short-term loans at high interest rates, which makes it nearly impossible for farmers to pay it back.

Fertilizers and pesticides

While China may be benefiting from its agricultural investments, they could be leaving a dangerous legacy in the host countries, namely: long-lasting pollution.

[...]

This problem is not isolated to Tajikistan. A regional expert who is monitoring China's farming practices in Russia, who spoke to Global Voices on the condition of anonymity, says that “Chinese farmers were achieving remarkable crops in Russia, but they used pesticides and other chemicals, which ultimately made the land unusable.” A number of reports in Russian media about the harmful consequences of Chinese farming practices in Russia have corroborated this claim.

[...]

Chinese companies bring modern agricultural technology that has helped enhance productivity in Tajikistan's cotton sector. Improved methods and resources have also led to higher yields, benefiting the local economy and contributing to Tajikistan's export potential. However, the lack of transparency regarding fertilizers and pesticides poses a major environmental and social threat — one that has yet to be fully explored or understood because of Tajikistan's repressive environment toward media and civil society.

Oil company investment in renewables reached $30 billion in 2023, but that’s pocket change; it amounts to only four percent of their overall capital investment, while their fossil investments continue to skyrocket. And it turns out, some companies have outright lied about their expenditures on renewable energy; others spent a while touting fancy ventures like algae-based fuels before just folding the projects outright, presumably happy with the PR return on investment that kept real pressure off their backs for another critical decade.

That’s all it is, really: Big Oil will say whatever needs saying at any given moment in order to continue doing exactly what they have done for a century. In 2020, that meant acknowledging the need for an energy transition, contritely pointing to their pandemic-induced losses, and floating the idea of some major pivot to wind and solar power. In 2024, that means saying, more or less, “fuck you, let’s drill.”

Your privacy is important. Protect yourself from Google with the FreeTube app.

Archived version

• In the last 125 years, bobcats have recovered significantly from extremely low numbers, with several million individuals found throughout North America today.
• Living at the interface of urban and rural environments, bobcats face many human-caused dangers, including loss of habitat to roam, automobiles, and rodent poisons.
• Bobcats help reduce the spread of diseases from animals to humans partly because they and other large mammals are poor disease vectors. Bobcats also prey on the small rodents that easily transmit pathogens.
• It’s legal to hunt bobcats in most of the United States. California, which has for five years closed the bobcat season, may reinstate hunting in 2025. Some researchers suggest that regulators should more carefully consider the role thriving wildcat populations play in protecting human communities from zoonotic diseases before expanding hunting.

[Edit typo.]

According to the European Union's climate agency, 2024 is also the first year to breach the 1.5 degree Celsius climate threshold.

What impact do such authoritarian governments have on organizers and activists in the Philippines?

When we look at how we do our work as organizers, there is the stark reality of the dangers that we sometimes face. It could be a really blatant attack on people like what we’ve seen in the past decade. I am very familiar with the assassination of Gloria Capitan, an anti-coal activist in Bataan. And I had the honor of meeting Chad Booc, who was assassinated two years ago. His work was about providing an alternative way of learning for the Lumad [Indigenous people] in Mindanao, but there were a lot of climate justice aspects to his work. That’s only just scratching the surface with all the documented cases of killings of environmental defenders. We have to raise our voices around this issue every time we go to an environmental conference or a meeting. We cannot just talk about climate without talking about justice. We cannot talk about climate justice without talking about human rights.

But there are a range of threats. A very close friend, someone who has been with Greenpeace, is being charged with cyber libel because we have been building up anti-mining resistance on Cebu island. This kind of threat is very real and it could really be very discouraging for a lot of us in the environmental movement. Because of this, many of us have decided to change our names on social media. Many of us hide behind cryptic handles on Facebook. And many of us have disengaged from social media altogether. Because we live in a digital world where a lot of connections and communication are done digitally, this can be very damaging to our effectiveness of putting our voices out there.

In the Philippines, activists have a lot of distrust in these platforms. At Greenpeace, we evaluate every kind of messaging platform that we use not because we are doing anything wrong or because all of our conversations are secret, but who you associate with can make you unsafe. For example, if your friend is red-tagged [publicly deemed a terrorist, often by the government] there is a likelihood that you’re next. Red-tagging is based on the premise that if you have radical beliefs, you don’t have the right to exist, even if you’re not doing anything illegal.

For me personally, red-tagging is one of the most tragic things in the Philippine context. I come from a family of activists and my parents were arrested, jailed and tortured in 1971 when martial law was declared under Marcos Sr. It’s quite depressing to think that now we’ve elected the dictator’s son and the majority of the electorate has chosen to forget about history. Now, when you’re someone who is raising your left fist, it’s dangerous to be doing that.

You described yourself as the “guy who attends conferences,” but you’re still very much involved in actions. Could you share some of the details of your recent action against Shell?

In January 2023, we launched a global campaign called “Stop Drilling, Start Paying,” which is part of our “Make Polluters Pay” campaign. We organized a protest on an oil and gas platform that was being transported from China to the North Sea. We were calling out Shell on their deceit and for saying how they’re complying with the Paris Agreement, but in reality, they are actually doing the opposite. So we were on board the Greenpeace vessel in the North Atlantic, and we waited for this vessel.

While we were planning this action we had some vague idea of what it looked like, but when we were there in the ocean on these small boats, it was very overwhelming to see this massive structure — around 65 yards wide, sitting on top of a much bigger vessel. It was moving very fast in very rough seas. Some of us were able to climb all the way up and occupy the vessel for 12 or 13 days, which we think is the longest occupation of a moving oil and gas platform. I tried to climb, but the vessel was doing these crazy maneuvers that they usually use for anti-piracy. We made it clear through radio that we were doing a peaceful protest, but we were being treated like pirates.

That protest then resulted in a lawsuit. Shell claims we were harassing them, which is ridiculous, because how can six activists — some of us from developing countries who are experiencing climate impacts — be the ones accused of harassing the richest companies in the world? It’s obviously a SLAPP suit, one that is meant to discourage activists from doing protests at sea. But even that brief experience was exhilarating. It gave me a big sense of pride around how we are holding a big polluter like Shell accountable.