The most recent projections from poll aggregator Canada338.com show that if an election were held today, the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre would win a crushing majority of 232 seats. The site suggests the Bloc is running a distant second with 45 seats — but ahead of the Liberals with 39, the NDP with 25, and the Greens with two.

The Bloc Québécois has formed the Official Opposition only once before, in 1993, after Lucien Bouchard left Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives to found the party.