@mkarliner @maegul @fediverse It will probably have some effect, yes. But a de facto monopoly based on having almost all the users is almost as significant as an actual monopoly.

@mkarliner @maegul @fediverse because what we know as the Fediverse will not grow and may disappear, even as the tools it developed and proved could work become widespread and even dominant.

@mkarliner @maegul @fediverse We see a lot of actors using the same machinery as Mastodon, from Meta to Truth Social. I think it's just because it's easy for them to do so, and hence the marginal costs are low for them. Rather than it pointing to any strategic intent or meaning anything for the 'Fediverse'. Although in that sense Mastodon has already had a phyrric victory in the protocol wars, because its enemies are using it.

@maegul @fediverse The lack of community tools might be the biggest technical gap, but the real problem is a lack of communities who want to use either.

Because of this, I think both Mastodon and BlueSky have hit their highwater marks under current conditions and no technical changes can alter that.

A million each is enough to survive and stagnate but it doesn't enable growth. Only some major antitrust action against Meta by EU could do that :)

@maegul @fediverse I find BlueSky to be a lot more diverse and also far better for news than Mastodon. But at the same time it's a nastier and more superficial place.