[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 32 points 1 month ago

Perhaps the "correct" way to view the collapse of Russia is like the Ottoman empire. The ottomans fell apart in stages over 300 years, gradually losing direct control and influence over the hinterlands, then suddenly in quick, sharp wars against their former vassals in Africa and the Balkans. Eventually, they end up with a relatively small rump state in Turkey. I think that's possibly the most likely outcome with Moscow/St. Petersburg retaining a much reduced ethnic russian rump state and nearly everything else breaking away. But - the point is - it happens slowly, in stages, and in response to losing wars. Longer than single human lifetimes, so it makes it harder to recognize and comprehend until it's all over.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 34 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

There is no hope communicating with these insane barbarians. Empathy, truth. shame and hypocrisy don't even exist. The entire society is based on brutality and brazen lies, you cannot trust anything they say. The only choice for a lasting peace for Ukraine is to keep fighting until the entire vile project of political russia collapses into something less malignant.

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submitted 1 month ago by TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

Belarus transferring equipment to their liege lord. There's been lots of questions about why Russia's vassal Belarus hasn't joined the war. Well - a good reason is that they have a tiny, ineffective army of less than 50,000 soldiers. For a very good reason - Belarus' army is designed to protect their muppet Lukashenko from domestic opposition, but remain small enough to not become independently powerful, or a threat to stand against Russia. While that makes perfect sense in keeping a weak vassal in power, it doesn't make for a good strategic depth option. If they're having to raid Belarus' tiny and even-more-outdated-than-theirs stocks, this is well and truly the bottom of the equipment barrel options for Herr Putin.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 31 points 1 month ago

They seem to be feasting on Russia's ham fisted attempts to bring reinforcement columns along main roads. Russia was completely unprepared for this, and Ukraine obviously was. There is almost no mention of Russian air power operating in this area, and reports that Ukraine brought their own substantial AA assets in case they did. So - you have Russian infantry and armor moving along main roads, in slow convoys, being surveilled by Western satellites the entire time, getting slammed by drones and artillery before they can even get to Kursk.

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submitted 1 month ago by TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

Large reinforcement column moved from Kharkiv to Kursk comes under heavy drone attack, including many tank/vehicle losses

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 27 points 2 months ago

Per childhood fairy tale monster Lavrov, it is time to acknowledge facts on the ground. The enemy must accept these realities.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 58 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I worked for one of the major dating sites about a decade ago. Let me assure you, that people act like debased hyperhormonal chimps in heat when they think nobody is watching. Oh, and by the way - someone is ALWAYS watching.

If you're a male who has some combination of a steady job, are remotely reliable, not drug or booze addled, have most of your teeth and hair and can tell a joke and hold a conversation - you're golden. It is UTTERLY unfair to ladies, but just being able to hold that low bar will get you much farther than you might think.

It's a strange dilemma - for a dating site to suceed, you have to protect the women. From the guys' perspective, it's shouting into the void, on the off chance you might EVER stand out enough to get a reply a week. From a woman's perspective, it's like the ozone layer protecting a constant bombardment of radiation and lethal rocks from space. A cornucopia of typically BAD CHOICES that manage to slip through the various cracks that the sites/apps put up to protect them.

But - the women ARE the site. If you have the WOMEN, then the men would follow you buck naked through the flaming tar pits of hell to get to them. But - the average male is a monosyllabic goblin with skeletons in his closet and bad intentions much more often than you'd think. It's why Bumble tried female-only communication initiation. The women on dating sites have an invisible shield tbey don't even realize exists around them to prevent bots, unsolicited dick pics, one word messages, repeat-offense harassers, and wide-net-casting quagmires who have more deeply held mysoginstic beliefs than they do good pick up lines.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 66 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

So - systems check time.

Made yourself a global pariah

Destroyed your primary export market.

Pissed away your Soviet stockpile inheritance

Blew your 30 year war chest of blood oil/gas, leaving your future extraction reserves of only the harder, more expensive to get variety.

Made yourself the permanent junior vassal to China, to whom you can now never refuse any demand for resources or concessions.

Destroyed any wisp of diplomatic credibility you’d had since even Stalinist times. Your remaining crop of fourth rate allies run only on bribes, and are comically useless compared even to the rogues gallery of corrupt tinpot dictators and thin skinned, low functioning mob bosses you propped up in Soviet times.

Pissed away your irreplaceable war stockpiles of missiles, attack helicopters, advanced fighter bombers and AWACS planes. Oh, and - the entire Black Sea Fleet. And the use of the Sevastopol Harbor that hosted it.

And - 575,000 working and breeding age males. So far. For a country with brutal demographics way below replacement rates. They would have been very useful to rebuild your society, rather than being slaughtered trying to establish a land bridge to a region that can no longer safely support military facilities

And for what? To be within visual range of territory you already controlled for a decade. Put this in perspective - so far through 2/3rds of 2024 alone, Russia have lost 180,000 casualties and masses of antiquated equipment, and taken the net sum of territory equivalent to the size of New York City. And your losses are RAPIDLY accelerating to higher than at ANY point in the war. You're driving soldiers into the front lines with scooters, ladas and golf carts.

Oh, and the small neighbor of 'racical inferiors' you set out to commit national genocide against have claimed more of YOUR territory in 72 hours with 3 brigades than you have with 300 in 2.5 years.

And that’s to say NOTHING about what it would take to actually hold that ground long term with occupation forces and settlers despite a permanent insurrection of drones, snipers, IEDs, sabotage, assassinations, car bombs and other goodies that would keep your army bleeding indefinitely and make the American experience in Iraq seem like child’s play.

Also to say nothing of making an eternal enemy of your most powerful former abused client state. There is Absolutely. No. Cooperation between the malignant petromafia kleptocracy you've built and a sovreign Ukraine going forward. Your 1,000 year project of abusive cruelty against Ukraine is drawing to a close - that divorce is final, we're just settling up the final bill, and neutering your sadistic tendencies as the same time

This has all been a GREAT idea. History is not going to be kind to the black hearted gangster ghouls who make it happen.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 51 points 2 months ago

Of the many ridiculous things Russia has done to humiliate and debase itself in this stupid vanity revenge project, making no provision at all for serious border defense may not be most manically immoral, but it may be the most militarily stupid.

For all their bluster about nukes - how are you going to use them exactly? On the Ukrainian territory you claim is yours, or on the Russian territory that is currently occupied by Ukraine.

They’re just so fucking stupid.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 77 points 2 months ago

Rogan is the great litmus test for our society. He's what a stupid person thinks a smart person is, just like how Trump is what a moron thinks a rich, successful person is.

So obviously such a complete dope grifter for anyone with an IQ greater than their shoe size, and yet he serves a purpose by being the standard of who should bother to talk to in life. If anyone you know says "you know, Joe Rogan said something interesting the other day...", well - then you know you can nod politely, and ignore everything that person saiys going forward.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 124 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

The problem is, everyone THINKS that they're the woman in this meme.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 47 points 2 months ago

Well - why would he be? Trump didn't accept it last time, and this is well and truly the end of the road for him if he doesn't win. He's 77 as it is, but zero point zero zero zero zero percent chance he gets this close again.

And the cost of not winning is monumental. It's victory or destruction for the vulgar talking yam. If he's no longer of any use to Russia, imagine what information might come out about him, especially if they themselves descend into instability.

Trump never accepts any defeat, ever. It's always a disgrace, the worst, most nasty this and that that's so unfair to him. Of course he's not going to accept a defeat. What the adults do about it is the important variable.

Given his legal trouble, he very truly could either be president or imprisoned. he probably has less money than he wants us to believe, fleeing to Russia or Venezuela etc isn't really an option. His money will just be seized by the state and he will be disposed of as an impotent, toothless old hippo, only capable of making noise, with no more use to offer anyone.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 15 points 2 months ago

I mean - the "psychology" behind it is to try and apply a childish playground nickname that damages him. Sleepy Joe, Lyin' Chuck Schumer, Low Energy Jeb Bush. The template isn't complicated. huRr DuRr tampons are gross and icky, and for ladies, let's try and make people think Walz is gross and icky. While the number of MAGAts is never going to be zero, there doesn't seem to be quite as much childish frenzy around his name calling as there once was.

[-] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 23 points 2 months ago

This just in - Russians are dumb as fuck and have no sense of justice, empathy or basic critical thinking.

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TwinkleToes

joined 2 months ago