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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2023
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China a year or less ago: Hey Phillipines, we should deepen our relationship. We're both close neighbors and you don't need to rely on the states for everything:).
China now: Fuck you Phillipines!! fuck you Vietnam!! Fuck you India!! Fuck my neighbors and friends!!! I hate everyone China #1!!!
Speed run Paraguayan war 2l
China didn't do the former, or at least their actions didn't match their words. Duterte gave them an opening to improve relations, when his presidency began in 2016. China took the olive branches and began exploiting the Philippines to the hilt, including ramping up their actions around the Scarborough Shoal. All through this period, Chinese diplomats were in Wolf Warrior mode, sneering at and insulting their southeast asian counterparts at every opportunity. It was so bad that the US, under Donald Trump's presidency, ended up looking like the more reasonable alternative.
Eventually, even Duterte got exasperated. And now the Chinese are having a shocked Pikachu face moment as the Philippines asks the US for more help.
All of which is to say that Xi is not a very smart man. He was handed a once in a generation opportunity to tease the Philippines out of the US orbit. All the Chinese had to do was be nice to their neighbors. And they completely bungled it.
these authoritan regimes are incapable of having foreign allies, always ready to fuck over their neighbours for their own short term internal gains
What authoritarianism does to a mf
When you get down to it, China might talk a big game about hating the west, but 99.9999% of human conflicts have not been with someone half the world away, they've always been with our neighbors, because those are the people you see all the time (metaphorically in the case of countries).
If that area of the world were a suburban neighborhood, China would be the guy who tries to claim the narrow access road behind everyone's house as his own personal driveway, and then starts issuing threats when people call him on his bullshit. Just with nuclear missiles.
God where have I seen this before...
Russia, 2020-2022:
Just to share a bit of perspective from the Philippine side here. The Philippine president before Duterte, Aquino Jr, was more proactive in advancing Philippine interests in the area. Then, Duterte started the shift away from the US and its allies to move closer to China. The current president, Marcos Jr, is way less pro-China than Duterte.
I suspect that Duterte and his campaign was funded by the Chinese to advance their interests in the country, including the disputed area. It's also worth noting that during his administration, the Philippines opened a lot more to the Chinese, with locals becoming resentful of the seemingly preferential treatment afforded to them. If that's not enough, there started popping up Chinese-owned (nominally Filipino-owned) offshore gaming entities which were manned by Chinese nationals (some of them were apparently housed in terrible conditions by their employers).
There might be more anti-Chinese sentiment here after Duterte than before him, oddly enough.