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this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2023
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They're not going to go to mastodon, but there have already been a pretty big exodus to Threads. I have a feeling that's going to be the thing - twitter is going to die slowly mostly in favor of Threads, meanwhile Mastodon and the fediverse will probably continue being a minor player for a while.
It's been stated that Meta intends to federate Threads with Mastodon eventually, so either will ultimately be viable.
I have zero faith that will happen. I don't think they anticipated how well threads would be adopted and that saying they'd federate was just a hedge.
I bet they'll pull a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend,_and_extinguish