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this post was submitted on 06 Feb 2024
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When a gold rush happens, the people getting rich are the ones selling shovels. That's what NVIDIA is doing, and it was what they were doing with the crypto gold rush. It makes them a decent short term investment. When AI crashes, they will probably lose some value if they can't find a new technology gold rush. But even when the gold rush ends, AI will be here and be wanted, so NVIDIA has a place, has profit potential. Just like the .com bust of the early 2000s. Most of those companies bankrupted, but it wasn't like we abandoned the Internet.
So, let me tell you about my 1990s investments in Sun Microsystems…
Ha, there are certainly plenty of companies that didn't survive, and it possible someone comes along with eats NVIDIA's lunch. AMD is certainly giving them a run for their money on the graphics side.
Problem is that nvidia has the brand strength now. AMD has to be significantly better than nvidia now to overcome the disadvantage.
AMD knows all too well. By every objective measure their server CPUs are the best right now and Intel still has a bigger market share anyway. Every time you think AMD should have easily grabbed the lions share of the market, they somehow don't. People are stuck in their ways.
On the GPU side, they have to face an even stronger version of this and also have to contend with the reality that nVidia's software stack and game developer partnerships are still stronger than AMD even it AMD GPU is technically strong.
I keep thinking this, but every time AMD seems to get close, Nvidia blows the doors off. There's value to be had, but they just can't compete on performance.
They and Microsoft are a smart investment for now. They could end up like a lot of company post COVID bump, but both are old companies that hopefully have the smarts to project and plan to so they don't collapse when the cash stops flowing as well.
I agree that these customer service bots are a poor use of the tech. In the corporate world, it is very useful for both writing and summarizing, that's where Microsoft comes in. Outside of LLMs, though, NVIDIA is well staged for most AI stuff. That's why I say they will outlast the craze. It doesn't matter what the AI is used for, NVIDIA wins. Voice to text, text to voice, sentiment analyses, object and image recognition, anomaly detection. All of which have gotten significantly better in the last few years due to modern AI tech. Hell, even video game up-scaling and ray tracing have both benefited from these technologies.
All of that is to say, the LLMs and image generation stuff has taken all the press and attention, but there are a lot more uses than those two, and clever people are finding new uses constantly.
My wife needed help with an Excel VBA script. I know programming but not VBA. I spent hours searching with Google to find a script that I could adapt. I gave up and tried ChatGPT. It wrote a working VBA program in seconds.
A friend is a sales engineer. He says he spends days putting together customer requirements with technical specs into a coherent proposal for government sales. He said he tried chatgpt and it gave him a complete proposal in seconds. He said he had to proofread it but that was hours instead of days of work. He (the company he works for) won the multi million dollar bid.
It's not human intelligence that will solve all the world's problems. But it is a revolutionary assistant like how the pocket calculator improved productivity compared to adding numbers by hand.