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From what I can tell, Obama said he probably could have beaten Trump if he had run for a third term AFTER the 2016 election was over. Unless you are referring to something different.
On the first point, do I really need to quote the things Trump has said about the January 6th protesters? And those who participated in the Charlottesville white nationalist march in 2017?
On the second point, regardless of many of his supporters being racists, Trump knows he has to still win over black and Hispanic voters in the political game. And why would he reject a lap dog like Ben Carson or Justice Thomas regardless of their skin color?
Your last sentence was too long and I don’t understand what you were trying to say, except: 1. Biden and possibly Harris are the only one on the “Trump wants the send to jail list” that make sense to you, and 2. Not every crime will be immune under the new SCOTUS ruling.
If rules can be bent to the point of it being a defense, their mere existence ceases to be an effective enough topic of debate, since their acceptance can just be met with concern that they won't be adhered to as intended. If he is going to arrest anyone over a "big lie" agenda (or for anything else), it's also worth pointing out it's not like they're not going to get a court hearing for it, it's not like they're going to wake up one day and be like "well I guess I'm in jail now". Relatedly, it's by the same logic as not rejecting "lap dogs" based on their characteristic that we can't automatically assume he's going to accept people as model members of his fandom just because they follow him.