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Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago) by usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 3 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%

Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -1 points 10 hours ago

My point is that you cannot be certain about it

Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.

If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 3 points 10 hours ago

That's not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can't be sure?

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 0 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist

You just lack reading comprehension.

The quote is:

best most recent structural bias measurement

The previous comments said, "the best most recent estimate of structural bias", which was Trump v Biden 2020. Its the best because its not a simulation or modeling. Its two measured values. I've seen simulations and statistical models to estimate things like structural bias, but none of them are as good as a measurement. We should use the measurement.

I get it. You've got an axe to grind. And at this point you might be better off inside a warm fantastic cocoon where Harris is crushing it and is going to win FL and TX. It might be the last light of joy you get to experience.

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 2 points 10 hours ago

My response was more so to the "you don't get to 'wish'" part. It could go the same way, it could not. It's not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn't helpful

Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -1 points 10 hours ago

Is the cocoon warm?

this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024

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