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Republicans Believe Election Is 'Effectively Over,' Trump Will Win: Analyst
(www.newsweek.com)
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this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2024
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538 is not a reliable source since Nate Silver left. He's written about why, but that's not the point here.
Michigan and Wisconsin are still very much up in the air. Most polls have them within the margin of error. That means they could very easily turn out red, even without anything being wrong with the polling method. The other states are even closer.
It's a terrifyingly close election, and even the smallest influence could change the result. What does the weather look like on election day? How did your portfolio do the day before? How long are the lines?
These could alter the course of history, even if we ignore things like more hurricanes in swing states.
Harris still has a slight edge, but it's barely above 50/50. Get out and vote (even in a safe red/blue state), vote the whole ballot, and do whatever you can to get others to vote as well. Ideally, vote early so nothing can interfere at the last minute.
538 is an aggregate.
If you look at the polling page for Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Harris wins 4 out of the 7 most recent polls. Trump wins 2. One was a tie.
Right now, things are looking good in MI and the 3rd party vote is right at 0 to 1% as predicted.
Yes, and Harris by 1.7 (as it shows currently) is still within the margin of error. Assuming a 3% margin of error (common, but I didn't look at the details for any of these polls), anything from Harris by 4.7 to Trump by 1.3 is perfectly in line with predictions.
In human terms, Harris has a very narrow lead, which could easily disappear when people actually go to the polls.