146
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2024
146 points (97.4% liked)
politics
19033 readers
2417 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
OK, here we go, so of the 22 PA polls currently up on 538:
Not red wave: 6
The New York Times/Siena College
InsiderAdvantage
Emerson College
Quinnipiac University
YouGov/Center for Working Class Politics
Just Bad polling: 3
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Research Co.
Hunt Research
OnMessage
Red Wave: 2
TIPP Insights - flooded the channel with 4 polls, but the polls split 50/50 with Harris showing a larger margin on her two than Trump did on his two.
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Ass. - McLaughlin being Trump's preferred pollster.
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO - While Fabrizio is a Red Wave pollster, GBAO is not. Both polls show Trump up so it's likely GBAO is just a beard here.
So of the 22 polls, 7 are run by clearly red biased pollsters. I wouldn't call 31.8% a "flood", it's about in line with MAGA support in the general population.
6 are run by just questionable sources, I wasn't able to determine bias other than "bad at their job" bias. Results seem evenly split, 2 Harris, 2 Trump, 2 tied.
Which leaves 9/22 run by unbiased, quality sources.
Ok, so I'm just scrolling through the most recent polls and picking out numbers based on this. I'm just going to grab the most recent numbers from Silver Bulletin. I'll grab the latest, most recent number for a given pollster, Harris & Trump only.
Not red wave: 6
The New York Times/Siena College
Harris/ Trump:
44%/ 49% (but also, I'm not sure whats going on with the repeat entries on this poll...)
InsiderAdvantage
Not in Nate Silvers database, cant find in 538's either, different name?
Emerson College
Harris/ Trump:
50.2%/ 48.6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO - While Fabrizio is a Red Wave pollster, GBAO is not.
Harris/ Trump:
45%/ 50%
Quinnipiac University
Harris/ Trump:
47%/ 49%
YouGov/Center for Working Class Politics
Harris/ Trump:
51%/ 48%
Just Bad polling: 3
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Harris/ Trump:
46%/ 48%
Research Co.
Harris/ Trump:
49%/ 45%
Hunt research:
47%/ 47%
OnMessage:
Can't find in either database.
Red Wave (2):
TIPP Insights
Harris/ Trump:
48%/ 49%
McLaughlin
Harris/ Trump:
48%/ 49%
Doing the quick stats...
Not Red Wave Polls:
Just Bad Polling:
Red Wave Polls:
The Red Wave polls and the Not Rave polls are in good agreement. These polls are all with each others MOE, and would fail a t-test.
Harris:
Trump:
Both p-values are significantly higher than 0.05, indicating that there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of Harris and Trump percentages.
The article is wrong. Unless it meant to say that Times/ Sienna is a "Red Wave" pollster, this an article targeted towards Blue MAGA to give them something they want to hear.
[Fuck, I'm annoyed. I did this for national, not PA.]
Annoyed so I just made a generalized analysis for everystate:
Codeshare link: https://codeshare.io/ONzAZ0
PA results:
No significant differences. 95% confidence intervals in the shaded area.