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this post was submitted on 21 Aug 2023
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Ask Lemmy
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We're starting to see prices decrease right now, since high interest rates are holding. The big analytics firms think we will see a return to affordable housing in 2024 as long as the fed continues to raise interest rates. The reality for larger cities is that prices will most likely stabilize and possibly decrease slightly, but never return to reasonable. Lots of people are in 2% mortgages right now on homes with inflated values. Those people are never moving unless life forces them to. So while rising interest should decrease housing affordability and force prices back down, inventory will remain low, keeping prices pretty stable. Areas with abundant inventory should see a return to normalcy, but for big popular cities, this is probably the new normal. Unfortunately nobody has a crystal ball, and we can't be sure of anything. But this is what the experts think.
The point is that those price declines would benefit only the wealthy who had the money in cash, but regular people are not having so much savings and for them even those "lower" prices are actually higher when considering the interest they will pay to the banks.
If you can eat the higher mortgage payment until the interest comes back down, and then you refinance, you'll actually come out ahead of people who bought at high prices when interest was low. You can always refinance. You can't re-negotiate what you paid for your house.
I have heard people say this, but why are we assuming the interest rates will come back down?
Because of their historical averages. They could stay high forever, but they probably won't.
Historical average home prices were lower too though. Why is this different?
That isn't really holding up this year. Interest rates are correlated with price increases. Prices corrected after the initial increase but have since continued to increase. While the cost to borrow has gone up, the reason for increased interest rates will always drive up prices. The federal reserve will raise interest rates if inflation is high (driving up nominal prices) or if employment is too high (increasing demand). Home prices will decrease if there is a recession but then the fed will lower rates to fight unemployment (assuming inflation isn't an issue).
In the US home prices are only down 0.5% year over year. In my high cost of living area (SF Bay area), prices are down 10% but climbing every month. At the current rate of home price growth, the Bay area will be back at all time highs this winter/spring.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_national#:~:text=Case%2DShiller%20Home%20Price%20Index%3A%20National%20is%20at%20a%20current,0.50%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago.