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Watching the Generative AI Hype Bubble Deflate
(ash.harvard.edu)
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this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2024
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I'm buying semis. I don't see AI, construed broadly, as ever shrinking from its current position.
I'm loading up on vacuum tubes.
They make the LLM responses "warmer".
I'm stocked up on obsolete media formats.
The hype of massive LLMs will die, but smaller companies in all sectors are only increasing the amount of GPUs they're buying.
You do you, but I think there's a good chance we see a pullback, followed by a pivot, followed by a more sustained rise. Basically, once investors realize AI can't deliver on the promises of the various marketing depts, they'll pull investment, and then some new tech or application will demonstrate sustained demand.
I think we're at that first crest, so I expect a pullback in the next few years. In short, I expect AI to experience something like what the Internet experienced at the turn of the millennium.
Based on what, exactly?
Based on the upcoming robot apocalypse, obviously.